IMPEACH BUSH

Nov. 19 (Bloomberg) -- Federal Reserve policy makers last month predicted the U.S. economy will contract through the middle of 2009, with some prepared to lower interest rates further in response, a record of their meeting showed.

"Some suggested that additional policy easing could well be appropriate at future meetings," the Fed said in minutes of the Oct. 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee gathering released today. "In any event, the Committee agreed to take whatever steps were necessary to support the recovery."

Fed officials cut their forecasts for inflation and growth to account for the choking off of credit to households and businesses as some of the biggest financial companies failed. Some FOMC members foresaw a risk that the inflation rate will fall below the Fed's objective of "price stability."

Treasuries rallied as traders added to bets that the Fed will reduce its benchmark rate to a record low next month. Two- year note yields reached the lowest level since the middle of 2003, the last time that deflation, or sustained declines in prices, threatened in the U.S.

The minutes were released hours after government figures showed that consumer prices plunged 1 percent last month, the most since Labor Department records began in 1947. The Commerce Department said construction began on 791,000 homes at an annual rate in October, the worst performance ever and indicating the housing slump may extend into a fourth year.

'Contract Moderately'

"Participants generally expected the economy to contract moderately in the second half of 2008 and the first half of 2009 and agreed that the downside risks to growth had increased," according to the minutes.

The Fed at the meeting cut its benchmark interest rate by half a point to 1 percent, matching a half-century low, in an effort to avert the worst recession since World War II.

A number of Fed officials were "concerned" last month that the impact of rate cuts was being offset by the credit crisis. The central bank in September and October introduced initiatives to help stem the crisis by purchasing short-term debt from companies and providing a backstop for money-market funds. Some Fed officials referred to the increase in liquidity injections as a form of "quantitative easing" that goes beyond rate changes.

"The Fed is about out of ammunition when it comes to overnight interest rates, but there's lots of other things they can do," such as target 10-year Treasury yields, said Keith Hembre, chief economist at Minneapolis-based FAF Advisors Inc., which oversees $112 billion.

Growth Forecasts

Fed officials lowered their economic growth projections to 0 percent to 0.3 percent for 2008 from 1 percent to 1.6 percent previously, according to the median forecast of Fed governors and district-bank presidents. The predictions for GDP next year ranged from a contraction of 0.2 percent to growth of 1.1 percent. In June, the so-called central tendency estimate was an expansion of 2 percent to 2.8 percent.

The panel estimated 2008 inflation, excluding food and energy, at 2.3 percent to 2.5 percent, from 2.2 percent to 2.4 percent in June. The Commerce Department's so-called core personal consumption expenditures price index is seen rising 1.5 percent to 2 percent next year, compared with forecasts of 2 to 2.2 percent in June.

Below Fed Target

"Some saw a risk that over time inflation could fall below low levels consistent with the Federal Reserve's dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment," the minutes said. Some Fed officials felt "more aggressive easing should reduce the odds of a deflationary outcome."

The Oct. 29 FOMC statement said "the pace of economic activity appears to have slowed markedly" while inflation was expected "to moderate in coming quarters to levels consistent with price stability."

Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday in testimony to the House Financial Services Committee that "there are some signs that credit markets, while still quite strained, are improving."

"However, overall, credit conditions are still far from normal," he said.

The U.S. economy may contract at a 3 percent annual pace this quarter, the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 59 analysts this month. Economists don't expect growth to resume until the three months ending in September 2009. The U.S. economy shrank at a 0.3 percent annual rate last quarter, the most since the 2001 recession.

"We are navigating the mother of all financial storms," Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher said Nov. 4. A recovery in the U.S. economy "will take time," Fisher said. "I don't see any economic growth in 2009. None."

The Fed is forecast by economists to reduce the federal funds target rate to 0.75 percent by the end of December and 0.50 percent in the first quarter. The federal funds rate was last below 1 percent a half century ago, when Dwight Eisenhower was president.

To contact the reporters on this story: Steve Matthews in Atlanta at smatthews@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 19, 2008 15:33 EST