IMPEACH BUSH

The Democratic Party has increased its margin in voters who identify with it rather than Republicans, and going into this year's election has increased its advantage among independent voters and in swing states, according to a Pew Research Center survey conducted during the first two months of this year.

Pew says voters now favor the Democrats by a "decidedly larger margin" than the previous two election cycles.

Voters who identify themselves as Independents actually occupy first place at 37 percent, followed by Democrats at 36 percent and Republicans at 27 percent. That's a 3 point gain for Democrats since 2004 and a 6 point drop for Republicans, putting them at their lowest ebb in 16 years.

The Democrats have added to that an edge among self-described independents. In 2004, independents broke roughly evenly among the two parties with 12 percent favoring Democrats and 11 percent the Republicans. But now, 15 percent lean Democratic compared to 10 percent who lean Republican. That means Democrats have a 51 percent to 37 percent margin if the leaners are combined with those who outright identify themselves as being for one party or the other.

However, Pew cautions against automatically interpreting these results as a Democratic advantage in the presidential race. "There is not a one-to-one correspondence between the balance of party identification in a given state and the electoral outcome in presidential elections," it said, a fact that is evident in state-by-state and national polls.

The survey also found:

- In the 12 states were voting was closest in the last two presidential races, Democrats now hold a 38 percent to 27 percent lead among voters who identify with either party. Those numbers were roughly equal in the last two presidential elections.

- In states that Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry won by 5 points or more in 2004, the Democratic margin over Republicans has grown from 10 points to 18 points. "Red States" won by President Bush by 5 points or more have remained relatively stable.

- Democrats have made significant gains in three of four swing states - Pennsylvania (21 electoral votes), Ohio (20 electoral votes) and Michigan (17 electoral votes) while party identification remains relatively close in Florida (27 electoral votes). Democrats lead 37 percent to 25 percent in Ohio, a turnaround of 14 points since 2004; 43 percent to 31 percent in Pennsylvania, a gap 8 points greater than 2004; and 34 percent to 24 percent in Michigan, increasing the difference by 8 points. In Florida, Democrats lead 35 percent to 32 percent, about the same as 2004. These party identification figures do not always square with general election match-ups in polls in these states. In Ohio, for instance, a mid-March poll has McCain leading Barack Obama by 8 points and in a statistical tie with Hillary Clinton. One pollster, Rasmussen Reports, rates, Ohio and Michigan as toss-ups, Pennsylvania as "leans Democratic," and Florida as "leans Republican."

-Among key red states, there has been a marked falloff in Republican versus Democratic identification in North Carolina (15 electoral votes) where, after there being a roughly even balance a few years ago, Democrats lead 36 percent to 29 percent. In Virginia (13 electoral votes), where much has been written about it going from "red" to "purple," Democrats have gone from a tie with the GOP in 2004 to a modest 4 point advantage. The Republican dominance in Texas (34 electoral votes) has fallen from 37 percent to 30 percent in 2004 to 33 percent to 30 percent now. Georgia (15 electoral votes) remains about even.

- In key "blue" states, the larger Democratic margins is more a matter of Republican declines than Democratic gains. In New York (31 electoral votes), Democrats gained 3 points in identification while Republicans lost 6 since 2004 and in New Jersey (15 electoral votes), Democrats slipped by 1 point while Republicans fell by 7. However, there was relatively little change in California (55 electoral votes) and Illinois (21 electoral votes) where both parties slipped a few points but the gap between them remained about equal.

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