Zogby: Bush would lose election contests
against all of his predecessors since Carter
Zogby
September 08, 2005
Bush Job Approval Hits 41%-All Time Low; Would Lose to Every Modern
President; Public Rates All Levels of Government Poorly in Katrina Handling;
Red Cross Rated Higher Than Federal Government, 69%-17% -New Zogby America
Poll
President Bush's job approval rating took a hit in the wake of Hurricane
Katrina, dropping to a historic low of 41%, a new Zogby America poll reveals.
The same survey found the nation's forty-third president would lose election
contests against all of his predecessors since Jimmy Carter.
The Zogby America survey of 1157 likely voters, conducted from September 6
through 7, 2005, has a margin of error of +/-2.9 percentage points.
The public rates the performance of all levels of government in the
aftermath of Hurricane Katrina negatively, with 36% giving the President
passing marks on his handling of the crisis-slightly higher than the 32% who
give government in general good marks for its handling of the storm that
devastated New Orleans and much of the Gulf coast.
In another key finding, the Zogby America survey finds that 86% of likely
voters assess the response of private charities favorably, and one charity, the
American Red Cross, gets higher marks than the federal government, as well as
state and local governments. In fact, four times as many respondents say the
Red Cross did a better job than the federal government, with the charity being
seen as more effective by 69% and the government's response viewed more
favorably by 17%. The Red Cross also gets better marks than Louisiana's state
and local governments, by a 72% to 10% margin.
President Bush's Job Approval Hits All-Time Low
The 41% approval rating marks a precipitous drop in the President's job
rating, which has been slumping in a gradual trend that began in late
February.
Pessimism about the nation's direction surged in the wake of Hurricane
Katrina, with a 53% majority of voters saying the nation is heading in the
wrong direction, while a 42% minority continues to say the nation is on the
right track. This is a significant shift since the last Zogby America poll,
taken at the end of July, which showed voters evenly divided on the question,
with 46% saying the nation was headed in the right direction and 47% saying it
was on the wrong track.
Pessimists now outweigh optimists in all regions except the Western U.S.,
where voters are evenly divided on the nation's direction. The South, the area
exclusively devastated by Katrina, is actually more positive in its outlook on
U.S. direction than the east, where voters are twice as likely to say the
nation is heading in the wrong direction as the right direction, by a massive
64% to 33% margin.
A month ago, President Bush's job approval numbers were surging on a number
of fronts, suggesting that, after months of stagnation in his overall approval,
the President was about to see a measurable increase in his job performance
rating. However, Hurricane Katrina damaged more than the Gulf Coast, with the
President's numbers on a number of fronts dropping, and the percentage of
voters willing to rate his handling of various facets of his office as
"poor' climbing substantially.
Significantly, though, the President's signature issue has actually improved
marginally, with a 52% majority continuing to approve of his handling of the
War on Terror, up one point from a month ago
n a sign of just how severe the damage to the President's standing caused by
Katrina is, the Zogby America survey finds that, despite his re-election last
fall, President Bush would lose to every modern president since Jimmy Carter,
the one-term Democrat who left office amid record unpopularity and a presidency
rated, at the time, dismally. He would also lose to his own father, who left
office amid an economic recession triggered, in part, by a devastating
hurricane.
However, in one of the few bright spots for the President, he would still
beat Massachusetts Democrat John Kerry, by a narrow, one-point margin.
Government At All Levels Criticized
Just one-in-three (32%) voters say that the government response to Hurricane
Katrina was adequate, while two-thirds (66%) rate the response negatively.
Among those holding a negative view of the government response, President
Bush bears the brunt of public criticism, with one-in-four (27%) voters saying
he most deserves the blame for inadequate government response. Federal
Emergency Management Agency Director Michael Brown comes in next in overall
criticism, with 22% blaming him. However, the combined total blaming Louisiana
Governor Kathleen Blanco (15%) and New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin (8%), the senior
state and local officials, respectively, is slightly higher than those blaming
Brown, with 23% placing the blame on the two Louisiana figures. Secretary of
Homeland Security Michael Chertoff, meanwhile, comes in at 8%, while 9% blame
other government officials.
It is worth noting that among the one-in-three voters who have a favorable
view of the government response, an overwhelming 40% credit the president,
while 16% credit Brown, 12% credit Blanco, 6% credit Nagin, and 7% credit
Chertoff.
Red Cross Did "Better Job" Reacting to Katrina
Respondents say the American Red Cross did a better job than either federal
or state and local governments responding to Hurricane Katrina and its
aftermath.
The huge private charity is rated more favorably than the federal government
by a 69% to 17% margin, and more favorably than Louisiana's state and local
governments by an even larger 72% to 10% margin.
The survey also finds 86% of likely voters saying that private charities
reacted effectively to the hurricane, while just 9% have a negative opinion of
charities' responses. Significantly, a 55% majority term private charities'
responses "excellent."
Pollster John Zogby: "The President has managed to do early in his second
term what his father did in just one term: Go from record high approval numbers
in the aftermath of 9/11 to his present numbers in the low 40s."
"It's interesting that each of the former presidents beats President Bush
and that his image has been hurt with what is perceived as his greatest
strength. It's intriguing to me as well that John Kerry is still stuck where he
was on Election Night-an indicator that Democrats, today, are unable to take
advantage of the nation's situation politically."
"Ironically, the Republican message to Americans is to rely less on
government. And it looks like that message is getting across, as Americans have
more faith in the Red Cross in this crisis than government."
Zogby International conducted interviews of 1157 likely voters chosen at
random nationwide. All calls were made from Zogby International headquarters in
Utica, N.Y., from September 6 to 7, 2005. The margin of error is +/- 2.9
percentage points. Slight weights were added to region, party, age, race,
religion, and genderto more accurately reflect the voting population. Margins
of error are higher in sub-groups.
(9/8/2005)
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