WJS/NBC poll: Bush hurt by Katrina in Iraq
War
WSJ Online
Katrina Erodes Support In U.S. for Iraq War
By JOHN HARWOOD
Staff Reporter of THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
September 15, 2005; Page A4
WASHINGTON -- Hurricane Katrina has accelerated the erosion in public
support for the Iraq war as President Bush's core of supporters dwindles and
economic pessimism turns Americans' attention inward.
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News Poll shows that cutting spending on Iraq
is Americans' top choice for financing the recovery from Katrina. Shaken by
high gas prices and bracing for further jolts, Americans have turned negative
about Mr. Bush across the board -- on handling the economy, foreign policy, and
even the war on terrorism.
The president's overall approval has fallen to a record-low for Mr. Bush of
40%, reflecting a shrunken core of base supporters. That promises to have
repercussions for his domestic agenda on issues like Social Security, taxes and
immigration, and leaves Mr. Bush with a steeper challenge on his most
significant second-term priority: using American power and resources to
transform Iraq and the broader Middle East.
A plurality of Americans has favored reducing troop levels in Iraq for most
of the year. Now, 55% favor bringing soldiers home, while just 36% back Mr.
Bush's position that current levels should be maintained to help secure peace
and stability.
"His standing to prosecute that case has been made more difficult," says
Republican pollster Bill McInturff, who helps conduct the Journal/NBC Poll.
Adds Democratic counterpart Peter Hart: It's "going to be very hard to just
move straight forward" on Iraq.
To be sure, the survey contains some bright spots for Mr. Bush. Federal
appeals court Judge John Roberts, his nominee to succeed the late William
Rehnquist as chief justice of the Supreme Court, has drawn respectable support
and little intense opposition. Some 38% say they support Judge Roberts for that
post, while just 20% oppose him and 41% don't know enough to say.
Nearly half of U.S. adults say President Bush has done a poor job in
handling the Hurricane Katrina relief efforts, according to a recent Harris
poll. And almost half expect the hurricane will have a great impact on the U.S.
economy.
And while Senate Democrats press Judge Roberts in Judiciary Committee
hearings to state his views on key issues, 57% of Americans say the nominee
shouldn't be required to spell them out since those issues may come before the
court. Democrats enjoy firmer support in public opinion for their demand for
more documents about Judge Roberts's previous government service; 41% say the
White House should make additional documents public, outpacing the 31% who say
Democrats already have enough information.
Yet the poll's findings about Americans' priorities show the work facing Mr.
Bush, who is scheduled to deliver a nationally televised address tonight on the
recovery from Katrina. Some 60% say rebuilding the Gulf Coast should be a
higher national priority than establishing democracy in Iraq; 5% say Iraq,
while 34% say the two are equally important.
The White House says the administration can handle both at once, but by
51%-37% Americans say the Iraq war wasn't worth its human and financial
costs.
The proportion of Republicans disapproving of Mr. Bush's job performance has
doubled to 15% from 7% in January, with pronounced defections among moderates
within Mr. Bush's party.
Katrina has contributed to that decline in support. By a 58%-38% margin,
Americans say they are dissatisfied with the Bush administration's response to
the catastrophe. Reflecting the absence of the traditional rally behind the
commander in chief during national emergencies, just 48% approve of the
president's handling of the matter; 80% approved of how he handled the
aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, while 64% backed the
actions of his father, President George H.W. Bush, following Hurricane Andrew
in 1992. The survey of 1,013 adults, conducted Sept. 9-12, has a margin for
error of 3.1 percentage points.
In particular, Katrina appears to have shaken public regard on two
attributes that sustained Mr. Bush through earlier political challenges. The
public now splits evenly, 41%-41%, on assessments of Mr. Bush's ability to
handle a crisis; at the outset of his second term in January, he received
positive marks for crisis-management ability by a 56%-28% margin. A bare
43%-40% plurality rates him positively for having "strong leadership
qualities," down from 52%-30% in January.
The crisis along the Gulf Coast may have also damaged the long-term effort
by Mr. Bush's strategists to expand Republican support among members of
minority groups. Fully 70% of African-Americans say the Bush administration
would have reacted to Katrina with greater urgency had the affected areas been
mostly white suburbs rather than mostly black inner-city neighborhoods. Nearly
seven in 10 whites reject that assertion.
Hispanics are divided evenly on the question. But the president's overall
rating among Hispanics, who were split on his job performance in January, is
now negative by a two-to-one margin.
Mr. Bush's signature domestic priority, overhauling the Social Security
system with private investment accounts, was already in political trouble
before the hurricane. Assessments of the administration's handling of Social
Security -- 28% say they are satisfied while 60% aren't -- are more negative
than assessments of how it handled the response to Katrina.
Beyond Social Security, the domestic political landscape has been buffeted
in a way that complicates challenges facing the White House and Republicans in
the 2006 midterm elections. Following the gas-price spikes immediately after
the hurricane, six in 10 Americans now expect pump prices to continue
rising.
In fact, the public now ranks gas prices as the country's top economic
issue. Just 6% assign top importance to federal taxes, the issue that Mr. Bush
and Republicans planned to elevate next year through a yet-unspecified overhaul
of the tax system.
Of particular concern to lawmakers facing voters next year, Americans have
turned pessimistic on the outlook for the economy. Some 49% expect the economy
to get worse over the next 12 months, triple the 16% who expect it to improve.
In January, those numbers were essentially reversed.
At the same time, Katrina may have left the public feeling slightly more
nervous about security at home. Fully 75% of Americans now say the U.S. isn't
adequately prepared for a nuclear, biological or chemical attack, up from 66%
who expressed that concern in 2002.
The net effect may be increased pressure on members of the Republican
majority to strike an independent course on a range of issues, resisting
appeals for party discipline that have been effective for most of Mr. Bush's
presidency. Those pressures will be greatest in the Northeast and Midwest,
where Mr. Bush's approval rating stands at 32% and 36%, respectively.
"All these [results] suggest unstable days ahead in the Republican caucus,"
says Mr. McInturff, whose firm advises many Republican lawmakers.
Write to John Harwood at john.harwood@wsj.com
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