National Geographic: Hurricanes Are Getting
Stronger
National Geographic
John Roach
for National Geographic News
September 15, 2005
Warming ocean temperatures appear to be fueling stronger, more intense
hurricanes around the world, a new study suggests.
The number of storms that reach Category Four and Five-the most powerful,
damaging hurricanes-has nearly doubled over the past 35 years, the study finds.
However, the frequency and duration of hurricanes overall have stayed about the
same.
Category Four hurricanes have sustained winds from 131 to 155 miles an hour
(211 to 249 kilometers an hour). Category Five hurricanes-like Katrina at its
peak in the Gulf of Mexico-have sustained winds of 156 miles an hour (251
kilometers an hour) or more.
The study finds that the increase in hurricane intensity coincides with a
rise in sea surface temperatures around the world of about 1°F (0.5°C)
between 1970 and 2004.
Writing in tomorrow's issue of the journal Science, the study's authors stop
shy of pinning the increase in hurricane intensity on global warming. To do so
would require a longer historical period of study and a better understanding of
hurricane dynamics, they say.
But in an interview with National Geographic News, the study's lead author,
Peter Webster, said, "I'm prepared to make an attribution to global
warming."
If the increases in hurricane strength and sea surface temperatures were
part of a natural cycle, as some scientists believe, then there would be
decreases in other regions to compensate for them. But the increases found in
the study are both worldwide.
"There's a plus and minus with oscillations," said Webster, an atmospheric
scientist at the Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta. "What we see is a
universal increase [in temperature] and a universal change in hurricane
intensity."
Scientists know that warm ocean waters fuel hurricanes. Webster says it
therefore follows that the more fuel there is, the bigger the storms will be.
But why the frequency and duration of hurricanes aren't also rising is poorly
understood.
"The relationship between sea surface temperature and intensity is not one
that has surprised us," Webster said in a telephone briefing with reporters.
"The other factors mentioned for hurricanes are more awkward."
Results Questioned
Chris Landsea, a meteorologist with NOAA's National Hurricane Center in
Miami, said that the increase in hurricane strength that Webster's team has
observed is questionable.
"I've got real concerns about whether this is a real change or whether it's
an artifact of the data," he said. "I'm pretty skeptical that it's a real
change."
For one, Landsea said, scientists mostly use satellite data to measure
hurricane intensity, a technique that has improved dramatically over the past
30 years. As a result, the measurements are likely skewed lower in the earliest
years of the period studied.
He added that even though the researchers found an increase in the number of
hurricanes reaching Category Four and Five, the maximum wind speed recorded did
not creep up, as would be expected if the hurricanes were really getting
stronger.
"That's a huge inconsistency in the study," he said. "Something is either
wrong here, or there was no real change in Category Four or Five [storms.]"
Lastly, the lowest up-tick in hurricane intensity-five percent-was found in
the Atlantic Ocean, where hurricane data is most complete. Landsea said if the
global data were better, the increase in intensity might be lower, if it exists
at all.
Landsea is currently applying modern methods to historical Atlantic
hurricanes to reassess their intensity. Before scientists can say with
confidence that hurricanes are getting stronger worldwide, the reassessment
must be done for all oceans, he said.
Webster and his colleagues note in Science that satellite techniques used to
measure storm intensity have changed over the years. But the method for
measuring maximum wind speeds, which they used for the study, has not.
In addition, the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane data has been
calibrated with aircraft reconnaissance. Where only satellite data is
available, the authors say, the data is consistent with the measurements
verified by aircraft.
Study Agreement
Michael Mann is the director of the Earth System Science Center at
Pennsylvania State University in University Park. He said the new findings are
robust and consistent with models of how the global climate responds to warmer
oceans.
According to Mann, the models predict that the number of intense
hurricanes-though not necessarily the total number of hurricanes-will increase
with rising sea surface temperatures.
"So the observations Webster and colleagues have analyzed here and the
trends they find are fully in keeping with theoretical climate model
predictions," he said.
Mann added that the lower up-tick in intensity in Atlantic hurricanes, as
compared to those in other oceans, is likely the result of the El Niño
weather phenomenon interfering with hurricane formation.
El Niño, which is driven by a periodic warming of the Pacific Ocean,
disrupts the high-altitude wind patterns favorable to the formation of
hurricanes in the Atlantic Ocean, he explained.
Some scientists speculate that el Niño events will become longer and
more frequent in response to global warming.
Under such a scenario, Mann said, warmer sea surface temperatures (which are
favorable to hurricane formation) and el Niño (which tends to inhibit
it) will cancel each other out.
"If we go to other [ocean] basins, those two factors are not working against
each other," Mann said. "There the long-term trends are more clear."
Be Prepared
According to Mann, Webster's study suggests that unless there's a dramatic
reduction in fossil-fuel use, the trend of more intense hurricanes will
continue well into the future.
Webster said he hopes that whether people believe in global warming or not,
they'll take the study seriously. This is especially true for residents of New
Orleans as they begin thinking about rebuilding.
"We can't make the assumption that Katrina was a once in a lifetime event,"
he said. "So if you are going to rebuild New Orleans, at least rebuild it
properly."
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