GOP Counting on a Miracle With U.S.
Debt
WSJ Online
Counting on a Miracle With U.S. Debt
By DAVID WESSEL
September 29, 2005; Page A2
In science-fiction movies, no obstacle
is too big to overcome. The brilliant, determined scientist finds a way to
divert the asteroid before it collides with Earth.
In real life, some problems are so daunting they are ignored until the
collision occurs.
The inadequacy of New Orleans's levees and the erosion of its barrier
islands offer one painful example. The U.S. economy's increasing debt to the
rest of the world offers another.
The U.S., a creditor country just 20 years ago, now owes the rest of the
world $2.5 trillion (if you net out U.S.-owned assets abroad with foreign-owned
assets in the U.S.). The U.S. this year will borrow from abroad a sum equal to
6% of its output of goods and services, more than in any year in the past 135
for which data are available.
It will do so without obvious difficulty or disruption to the global
economy. Still, hardly any reputable economist, finance minister or central
banker thinks the U.S. can continue indefinitely to borrow more and more.
"While this benign situation could persist for some time, it will not continue
forever; and finding out just when it might end is an experiment best not
undertaken," the International Monetary Fund said delicately the other day.
The steps needed to wean the U.S. from growing dependence on the savings of
Asians and Europeans are unappealing to both the debtors and the lenders.
(Think tax increases in the U.S. and a big upward move in China's currency.)
Apocalyptic predictions that this will end in a recession-provoking Category 5
crash in the U.S. dollar or an abrupt end to foreigners' appetite for U.S. debt
have been wrong so far. The combination has produced complacency and denial
among politicians and financial markets. Maybe this will sort itself out
smoothly; maybe not.
The problem: The U.S. spends more than it earns. The country invests more
than it saves. It consumes more than it makes. A lot more. The rest of the
world does the opposite, exporting excess production and savings to the U.S.
Even China, which has good reason to invest at home to lift living standards,
sends savings to the U.S. so Americans can get cheap mortgages. This will not
persist forever.
The risk: When the world economy is lopsided, something inevitably happens
to right the balance. Even those who doubt this will end with a bang worry
about today's trends. Gregory Mankiw, a Harvard economist who recently ended a
stint as chief White House economist, predicts, "This will work out relatively
benignly." Still, he adds, U.S. reliance on the savings of foreigners portends
a "less prosperous future" for the U.S. Either foreigners will decide to keep
more of their money, and force the U.S. to curtail the investing needed to spur
future growth, or they will keep lending to the U.S., and claim an ever-greater
share of future U.S. profits.
The entrails of the government statistics provide a warning. For years, the
U.S. has earned a higher return on foreign factories, real estate, stocks,
bonds and bank accounts it owns abroad than foreign investors have earned on
much larger investments in the U.S. The U.S. is like the safe money-market fund
for the rest of the world, apparently offering low, safe returns. Last year,
the U.S. received $36 billion more on overseas investments than it paid out.
But the surplus is shrinking largely because foreigners have been sinking so
much into the U.S. economy. In the second quarter, the surplus was down to $1
billion.
Washington think-tank economist William Cline, of the Center for Global
Development and the Institute for International Economics, recently had to pick
a cover for his comprehensive new book, "The United States as a Debtor Nation."
One idea was to put ants crawling up one side and grasshoppers down the other,
a reference to Aesop's fable. That was shot down. "People thought it was
termites," he says. It would have been appropriate.
The solution: Other countries need to grow faster than the U.S. so they
consume more of what they make and absorb more of their own savings. A weaker
dollar and stronger Chinese yuan would help. If other countries don't pick up
the pace, something is bound to happen in the U.S. -- interest-rate increases,
stock- or bond-market declines, an end to the housing boom or tax increases --
that will slow the U.S. economy and its demand for foreign products and
savings.
We have been here before. We know what is coming, just not how and when. In
the late 1980s, U.S. borrowing from abroad soared as U.S. economic growth
outpaced growth overseas, a strong dollar made imports inexpensive and budget
deficits widened. Then the dollar plummeted, the stock market crashed and
recession curbed U.S. appetites for imports.
As Barclays Capital chief economist Laurence Kantor reminds me, only the
unforeseen reunification of Germany prevented a deeper global recession; it
prodded the German government into uncharacteristically stimulative fiscal
policy.
Counting on a similar miracle is imprudent.
Write to David Wessel at capital@wsj.com
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