60% of Young Male Voters Say War in Iraq, "Not the Right Decision'; 59% Say President Bush Misled America and Executive Branch- Highly Responsible for the Problems that US faces Today, New Zogby/Williams Identity Poll Reveals

Most political pundits believe that the final month of the 2004 presidential campaign will center around the war in Iraq.  If so, then young men are likely to cast a vote of "no confidence' in George W. Bush.  These are the findings of a new Zogby/Williams Identity poll conducted by Zogby Interactive from September 3 through September 7, 2004.  The interactive survey was conducted online among 850 males between the ages of eighteen and thirty years old.

The survey reveals that 60 percent disagree with the statement that George W. Bush made the right decision to go war with Iraq.  (Only 40 percent think Bush made the correct decision.)  These attitudes remain firmly held when other aspects of the war are probed.  For example, 63 percent disagree with the claim that Bush made the right decision to go to war, even if the intelligence data were flawed.  Strong opposition to the war among the nation's young men has created a crisis of confidence in the president's leadership: 59 percent believe President Bush misled the American people from the beginning about the need to go to war with Iraq.

These negative assessments of the Commander-in-Chief are held by all major racial and income groups among the young men surveyed.  For example, when asked if George W. Bush made the right choice in going to war, 36 percent of whites "completely agree;' among Hispanics and African-Americans, the figures are 30 percent and 18 percent respectively.  Those at the bottom of the income scale have very negative opinions about the President's decision to go to war: of those earning less than $15,000, only 27 percent "completely agree' with Bush's decision.  As income levels rise, support for the President's judgment about the Iraq war decision rises only modestly.  For example, of those earning $75,000 or more, 36 percent "completely agree' with Bush's decision.

There is some evidence that suggests a lack of support for the Iraq War is translating into a crisis of confidence in government.  When young men were asked which persons or institutions were "highly responsible' for the serious problems and challenges we face as a country today, the number one response was the executive branch (59 percent), followed by the media (56 percent), Congress (55 percent), citizens (50 percent), special interests (48 percent), voters (46 percent), education (43 percent), and corporate America (40 percent). Certainly, the Iraq War has contributed to the lack of confidence in Congress and the President.  The corporate scandals (e.g., Enron, Martha Stewart, etc.) have also not gone unnoticed as corporate America and special interests come in for heavy criticism.

But some institutions emerged relatively unscathed in the blame game.  For example, only 14 percent of respondents thought local governments were "highly responsible' for the country's problems.  Other large institutions were also exempt: for example, just 16 percent mentioned labor unions as "highly responsible' for the country's challenges; religious institutions were cited by 26 percent; and 31 percent specified the courts, with 38 percent specifically mentioning the Supreme Court.

This crisis of confidence is also evident when young men are asked whether the major institutions of government are ready to undertake the missions presented to them.  The United Nations led the list with 68 percent saying it was either "completely' or "somewhat unprepared' to undertake its mission.  But the agencies of the U.S. government hardly fared much better: 58 percent thought the Department of Homeland Security was either "completely unprepared' or "somewhat unprepared' to undertake its mission; Congress, 55 percent; the President, 54 percent; the Transportation Safety Administration, 50 percent; CIA, 49 percent; and the judicial system, 43 percent.  Only the Pentagon emerged relatively unscathed with just 31 percent saying it was unprepared.  (The media also came in for special criticism with 63 percent saying it was unprepared for its mission.

Twenty-five years ago, President Jimmy Carter went on national television and delivered his "crisis of confidence' speech.  Noting the widespread lack of public trust in government, Carter declared: "The gap between our citizens and our government has never been so wide.  The people are looking for honest answers; clear leadership, not false claims and evasiveness and politics as usual.'  These are exactly the same sentiments expressed by the nation's young men when asked in this survey about George W. Bush and Iraq.

Specifically, 55 percent say their level of trust in the U.S. government has either "gone down' or "disappeared completely' when they think about the war in Iraq.  Likewise, when asked what would keep them from joining the military, the number one response was "disagreement with American foreign policy' (32 percent).  Finally, when asked how people in their communities would respond if they decided to join a branch of the U.S. military, 17 percent thought their fellow citizens "wouldn't care;' 15 percent said they "might try to change my decision;' 24 percent believe "they would think I've lost my mind.'  These responses total an astounding 56 percent; only 43 percent believe their neighbors "would be proud of me.'

This does not mean that the young males surveyed have lost either their sense of duty or patriotism. When asked what would most motivate the respondent to join the U.S. military, 30 percent mentioned "defending my country from foreign invasion;' 23 percent cited "patriotism.'  And when queried as to what issues the respondent would fight and die for personally, the leading answer was "my family' (41 percent) followed by America (24 percent).

Of all the branches in the U.S. armed forces, the Air Force is cited by a plurality (36 percent) as the one they would join if they could.  (This relatively high response undoubtedly reflects love of technology that young men often exhibit.) This was followed by the Navy (21 percent), Marines (17 percent), National Guard (14 percent), and Army (13 percent).

According to Mark Williams, co-founder of the Zogby Williams Institute; "the bottom line sentiment contained in these polling data is clear: among young men aged 18-30, there is a crisis of confidence in the major institutions of the U.S. government and its leaders.  The source of that crisis is clear: the war in Iraq.'

The Zogby/Williams Identity Poll was conducted by Zogby Interactive online.  Respondents were invited to participate from panels of likely voters who have agreed to take part in online surveys. Respondents followed instructions leading them to the survey located on secure servers at Zogby Interactive headquarters in Utica, New York. All surveys were completed from Friday, September 3 through Thursday September 9, 2004. The margin of error is +/- 3.6 percentage points.  Margins of error are higher in sub-groups.  Slight weights were added to race to more accurately reflect the population.

(9/29/2004)

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