Estimate provides bleak
assessment of Iraq security
Boston Globe
By Katherine Pfleger Shrade
Associated Press
August 15, 2004
WASHINGTON (AP) A highly classified National Intelligence
Estimate assembled by some of the government's most senior
analysts this summer provided a pessimistic assessment about the
future security and stability of Iraq.
The National Intelligence Council looked at the political,
economic and security situation in the war-torn country and
determined at best the situation would be tenuous in terms of
stability, a U.S. official said late Wednesday, speaking on the
condition of anonymity.
At worst, the official said, were ''trend lines that would
point to a civil war.''
The intelligence estimate, which was prepared for President
Bush, considered the window of time between July and the end of
2005. But the official noted that the document, which runs about
50 pages, draws on less formal intelligence community assessments
from January 2003, before the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and the
subsequent deteriorating security situation there.
The assessment was initiated by the National Intelligence
Council, a group of senior intelligence officials who provide
long-term strategic thinking for the entire U.S. intelligence
community but report to the director of central intelligence. It
was completed under acting CIA Director John McLaughlin. He and
the leaders of the other intelligence agencies approved it.
A CIA spokesman declined to comment Wednesday night.
The document was first reported by the New York Times on its
Web site Wednesday night.
It is the first formal assessment of Iraq since the October
2002 National Intelligence Estimate on the threat posed by fallen
Iraqi President Saddam Hussein.
A review of that estimate released this summer by the Senate
Intelligence Committee found widespread intelligence failures
that led to faulty assumptions that Iraq had weapons of mass
destruction.
Senate Republicans and Democrats on Wednesday denounced the
Bush administration's slow progress in rebuilding Iraq, saying
the risks of failure are great if it doesn't act with greater
urgency.
''It's beyond pitiful, it's beyond embarrassing, it's now in
the zone of dangerous,'' said Sen. Chuck Hagel, R-Neb., referring
to figures showing only about 6 percent of the reconstruction
money approved by Congress last year has been spent.
Foreign Relations Committee members vented their frustrations
at a hearing where the State Department explained its request to
divert $3.46 billion in reconstruction funds to security and
economic development. The money was part of the $18.4 billion
approved by Congress last year mostly for public works
projects.
The request comes as heavy fighting continues between U.S.-led
forces and a variety of Iraqi insurgents, endangering prospects
for elections slated for January.
''We know that the provision of adequate security up front is
requisite to rapid progress on all other fronts,'' said Deputy
Assistant Secretary of State Ron Schlicher.
White House spokesman Scott McClellan said circumstances in
Iraq have changed since last year. ''It's important that you have
some flexibility.''
But Hagel said the shift in funds ''does not add up in my
opinion to a pretty picture, to a picture that shows that we're
winning. But it does add up to this: an acknowledgment that we
are in deep trouble.''
Hagel, Committee Chairman Richard Lugar, R-Ind., and other
committee members have long argued even before the war that
administration plans for rebuilding Iraq were inadequate and
based on overly optimistic assumptions that Americans would be
greeted as liberators.
But the criticism from the panel's top Republicans had an
extra sting coming less than seven weeks before the presidential
election in which President Bush's handling of the war is a top
issue.
''Our committee heard blindly optimistic people from the
administration prior to the war and people outside the
administration what I call the 'dancing in the street crowd,'
that we just simply will be greeted with open arms,'' Lugar said.
''The nonsense of all of that is apparent. The lack of planning
is apparent.''
He said the need to shift the reconstruction funds was clear
in July, but the administration was slow to make the request.
''This is an extraordinary, ineffective administrative
procedure. It is exasperating from anybody looking at this from
any vantage point,'' he said.
State Department officials stressed areas of progress in Iraq
since the United States turned over political control of Iraq to
an interim government on June 28. They cited advances in
generating electricity, producing oil and creating jobs.
Schlicher said the department hopes to create more than
800,000 short- and long-term jobs over two years, saying, ''When
Iraqis have hope for the future and real opportunity, they will
reject those who advocate violence.''
Congress approved the $18.4 billion in November as part of an
$87 billion package mostly for military operations in Iraq and
Afghanistan. At the time, administration officials said the
reconstruction money was just as important as the military funds.
But only $1.14 billion had been spent as of Sept. 8.
''It's incompetence, from my perspective, looking at this,''
said the panel's top Democrat, Sen. Joseph Biden Jr. of
Delaware.
In separate action Wednesday, the Senate Appropriations
Committee agreed to shift $150 million from the $18.4 billion to
buttress U.S. efforts to help victims of violence and famine in
the Darfur region of Sudan and nearby areas. The transfer was
approved by voice vote with bipartisan support.
Associated Press writer Ken Guggenheim contributed to this
report.
|