PRINCETON, NJ -- What will happen if the Democrats manage to win control of Congress in the Nov. 7 elections? This question is of more than academic interest. Republicans have incorporated assertions about the consequences of a possible Democratic takeover as a significant part of their campaign strategy this fall.

The Oct. 20-22, 2006, USA Today/Gallup poll included questions that investigated these issues in some detail. The questions were designed to tap into Americans' views of what would happen if control of Congress moved to the Democrats -- and also whether that particular consequence would be a good thing or a bad thing.

One question administered to a random half of the sample asked respondents about the likelihood that Democrats would do each of 11 actions if they took over control of Congress. A second question administered to the other random half of the sample asked respondents whether they would approve or disapprove of Democrats doing each of the 11 items in the list.

As illustrated, a majority of Americans believe the Democrats will take action on 7 out of the 11 actions tested: setting a time-table to remove troops from Iraq, rejecting most of President Bush's court nominations, increasing the minimum wage, conducting investigations of the Bush administration, increasing federal income taxes, passing legislation to provide healthcare insurance to those who do not have it, and allowing Americans to buy prescription drugs imported from other countries.

Fewer than half of Americans believe it is likely that the Democrats would cut back efforts to fight terrorism, repeal the Patriot Act, take steps to legalize same-sex marriage, and implement all of the anti-terrorism recommendations made by the 9/11 commission.

But if the Democrats did take control of Congress and took each of these actions, would that be good or bad?

A majority of Americans would approve if the Democrats took action on 6 of the 11 items tested in the poll: increase the minimum wage, pass legislation to provide healthcare coverage to those without it, allow Americans to buy prescription drugs from other countries, set a time-table for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq, implement all of the anti-terror recommendations made by the 9/11 commission, and conduct major investigations of the Bush administration.

Fewer than half would approve if the Democrats rejected most of President Bush's nominations for federal judges, repealed the Patriot Act, took steps to make same-sex marriage legal, increased federal income taxes, and cut back on efforts to fight terrorism.

The graph below displays each of the possible actions as a point on a two-way grid. The vertical axis represents the percentage of Americans who would approve if the Democrats did that particular action. The horizontal axis represents the percentage of Americans who think the Democrats would do each if they win control of Congress.

The dotted lines are placed at the 50% line on each axis.

The list of 11 items can be divided into four separate categories based on where they fall on this grid:

1. Actions with the greatest potential advantage for the Democrats -- a majority of Americans say it is likely the Democrats would do each, and also say they would approve if Democrats did (listed below in descending order of approval):

• Increasing the minimum wage
• Pass legislation to provide healthcare insurance to those who do not have it
• Allow Americans to buy prescription drugs imported from other countries
• Set a time-table for withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq
• Conduct major investigations of the Bush administration

2. Action with potential advantage for the Democrats -- the public approves, but does not think the Democrats are likely to do it:

• Implement all of the anti-terror recommendations made by the 9/11 commission

3. Issues that could potentially hurt the Democrats -- the public disapproves, but thinks the Democrats are likely to do so:

• Reject most of President Bush's nominations for federal judges
• Increase federal income taxes

4. Issues off the table -- the public opposes action on each issue, but also thinks the Democrats will not take action on them:

• Repeal the Patriot Act
• Take steps to make same-sex marriages legal
• Cut back on efforts to fight terrorism

These results suggest several strategies for both sides in the last days of this year's election campaign. The Republicans would have the highest potential payoff from emphasizing that the Democrats, if elected, would increase federal income taxes and reject administration nominations for federal judges. Both of these are actions that the public already believes the Democrats would take, and both are approved by less than a majority.

The data show that Republicans have a tougher time convincing voters that Democrats would repeal the Patriot Act, take steps to make same-sex marriage legal, and cut back on efforts to attack terrorism. Republicans have already incorporated the assertions that the Democrats would do these things into their strategy. But, the results show that while less than a majority of Americans approve of each of these actions, Democrats will have an easier time countering GOP assertions since the majority of Americans are already disinclined to believe that the Democrats will do these things.

Democrats, on the other hand, have a series of five actions that would look to be winners, given that Americans approve and already believe the Democrats would be likely to do them if elected -- increasing the minimum wage, passing new healthcare legislation, allowing the purchase of prescription drugs from other countries, setting a time-table for withdrawal from Iraq, and conducting investigations of the Bush administration.

Survey Methods

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,002 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Oct. 20-22, 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

For results based on the 476 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 526 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.

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