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Death Toll of Iraqis Exceeds 600,000
Bloomberg
By Nadine Elsibai
October 11, 2006

Oct. 11 (Bloomberg) -- About 600,000 people have died violent deaths in Iraq since the U.S.-led invasion of the country in March 2003, researchers found in a new study by the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore and Al Mustansiriya University in Baghdad.

Gunshots were the most common cause of death, with males ages 15 to 44 accounting for 59 percent of the total as of July 2006, according to the report to be published in today's online edition of The Lancet, a scientific journal. The estimates were made after a nationwide survey of 1,849 Iraqi households between May and July 2006.

``Deaths are occurring in Iraq now at a rate more than three times that from before'' March 2003, said Gilbert Burnham, lead author of the study and co-director of the Bloomberg School's Center for Refugee and Disaster Response, in a statement.

The total exceeds what other groups have found over a similar period, including the Iraq Body Count estimate that between 43,491 and 48,283 died up to Sept. 26.

Authors of this latest study relied on a population-based method to collect information, asking members of each household for the number of births and deaths that occurred there over a specified time period.

Approximately 1,474 births and 629 deaths were reported among the 12,801 people surveyed. Those numbers were multiplied based on the 26.1 million Iraqis who live in the surveyed area.

Almost half of those surveyed didn't know who killed their respective household member. Information on whether the deceased was involved in armed combat, terrorism, or criminal activity wasn't collected. The total number of deaths found was 654,965, including deaths resulting from deteriorating health services in the region, represents about 2.5 percent of the Iraqi population.

In accounting for error and bias in the study, the authors acknowledged that ``extreme insecurity'' in the region restricted the size of survey teams, the number of supervisors and how much time could be spent in each location. Family members might also have misreported deaths and ``large-scale migration'' out of Iraq could have affected overall numbers, the study said.

The same survey done in 2004 by Johns Hopkins and the Al Mustansiriya University estimated more 100,000 deaths from all causes, excluding Falluja households. Such survey methods were used to gauge mortality rates in the Congo, Kosovo, Sudanese conflicts.

There have been 2,745 U.S. military deaths since the U.S.- led invasion in March 2003, the U.S. Defense Department said yesterday.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nadine Elsibai in Washington at nelsibai@bloomberg.net .
Last Updated: October 11, 2006 10:19 EDT

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