Public More Pleased Than Disappointed by
Miers' Withdrawal
Gallup. com
by Frank Newport
October 28, 2005
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October 28, 2005
Public More Pleased Than Disappointed by Miers' Withdrawal
More concern about her qualifications and closeness to Bush than her
ideology
by Frank Newport
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GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- By a small margin, the American public is more pleased than
disappointed with Harriet Miers' withdrawal as President Bush's nominee to fill
the U.S. Supreme Court vacancy being created by the impending retirement of
Sandra Day O'Connor.
The results of a special CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted
Thursday night suggest that Americans who are pleased with Miers' withdrawal
are mostly concerned about Miers' qualifications and her closeness to Bush,
rather than her ideology.
The poll contains some good news for Bush; most Americans consider Miers'
withdrawal to be only a minor setback for the president, or no setback at all.
Going forward, about 4 in 10 Americans want Bush's new nominee to be
conservative, but only 3 in 10 think it is very important that he nominate
another woman to replace O'Connor.
Most of the results of the special one-night poll are consistent with
previous CNN/USA Today/Gallup polling. In Gallup's Oct. 21-23 poll, a
plurality of Americans thought the Senate should reject the Miers nomination,
and also showed significant disappointment over Bush's choice.
Initial Reaction
The Thursday night instant-reaction poll found that by a 42% to 35% margin,
Americans are more pleased than disappointed by Miers' withdrawal.
As you may know, President Bush withdrew his nomination of Harriet Miers
to the U.S. Supreme Court today.
First,
Would you say you are pleased or disappointed that Harriet Miers'
nomination was withdrawn?
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Pleased
|
Disappointed
|
No opinion
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2005 Oct 27
|
42%
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35
|
23
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This sentiment is roughly in line with results from
this past weekend's poll in which Americans were asked about Bush's
nomination of Miers. That poll found that 40 % of Americans were pleased
with Bush's choice, while 50% were disappointed.
Although the Thursday night poll's sample size is relatively small, it is
informative to look at the responses by the self-reported ideology,
partisanship, and gender of those interviewed.
Initial Reaction to Miers' Withdrawal
|
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Pleased
|
Disappointed
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TOTAL SAMPLE
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42%
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35%
|
|
|
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Conservatives
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34
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44
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Moderates
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45
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33
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Liberals
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55*
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25*
|
|
|
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Republicans
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31
|
53
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Independents
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39
|
33
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Democrats
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55
|
25
|
|
|
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Men
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47
|
32
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Women
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38
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37
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*Small sample size
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|
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The pattern of these responses follows typical lines. Conservatives and
Republicans are most likely to be disappointed. This suggests rank-and-file
conservatives may have been less negative about the nomination than highly
visible conservative pundits and columnists.
Still, only 44% of conservatives describe themselves as disappointed with
the withdrawal, while 34% are pleased (more than one in five conservatives
didn't have an opinion in response to this question).
Men are more pleased than disappointed; women split almost precisely even in
their reactions.
The Thursday night poll asked respondents who say they are pleased by
the Miers withdrawal to indicate which of four possible explanations is the
most important reason for their pleasure.
If you had to choose among the following, which would you say is the
most important reason why you are pleased that Harriet Miers' nomination was
withdrawn -- [ROTATED: her views are too conservative, her views are not
conservative enough, she does not have strong enough qualifications to serve on
the Supreme Court, (or) she is too close to George W. Bush
personally]?
BASED ON 241 ADULTS WHO SAY THEY ARE PLEASED THAT MIERS' NOMINATION
WAS WITHDRAWN
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Views too
conservative
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Views not
conservative enough
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Does not
have strong qualifications
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Too close
to Bush personally
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No
opinion
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2005 Oct 27
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8%
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4
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49
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35
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4
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Few of those who are pleased by the withdrawal say it was either because
Miers was too conservative or because she was not conservative
enough.
Instead, nearly half say they are pleased because Miers does not have strong
enough qualifications, and a third feel she is too close to the president.
Impact on Bush
The long-term effect of the failed nomination on Bush is impossible to
predict at this point. By all indications, Bush will name a new nominee in very
short order, and the focus on that person will no doubt take attention away
from the Miers situation in the days and weeks ahead.
For their part, Americans are highly likely to say that the Miers affair
will be a minor setback or no setback at all for the Bush administration.
Do you consider the withdrawal of Harriet Miers to be a major setback
for the Bush administration, a minor setback, or not a setback at all?
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Major
setback
|
Minor
setback
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Not a setback
at all
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No
opinion
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2005 Oct 27
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16%
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42
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34
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8
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Only 16% say it is a major setback, 42% say it is a minor setback, and 34%
say it is not a setback at all.
Conservatives and Republicans are predictably less likely than other groups
surveyed to say that it is a major setback.
Looking Ahead
Gallup polling has consistently shown that Americans have not been convinced
that it is strongly necessary for Bush to nominate a woman to replace
O'Connor.
The Thursday night poll confirms these findings.
Now that George W. Bush has withdrawn his nomination of Harriet Miers,
how important is it to you that he nominates another woman to replace Sandra
Day O'Connor on the Supreme Court -- very important, somewhat important, not
too important, or not at all important?
|
Very
important
|
Somewhat
important
|
Not too
important
|
Not at all
important
|
No
opinion
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2005 Oct 27
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30%
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29
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14
|
25
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2
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Only 3 in 10 Americans interviewed say that it is very important that the
new nominee be a woman, while another 29% say it is somewhat important. Roughly
4 in 10 say it is not too important or not at all important.
Are women more concerned than men that Bush's new nominee be a woman? The
answer to that question is "yes," by a small margin. Thirty-six percent of
women say it is very important that the new nominee be a woman, compared with
24% of men.
How Important Is It That Bush Nominate Another Woman
to Replace Sandra Day O'Connor on the Supreme Court?
|
|
Very
important
|
Somewhat
important
|
Not important/
Not at all important
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TOTAL SAMPLE
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30%
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29%
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39%
|
|
|
|
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Men
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24
|
28
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47
|
Women
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36
|
30
|
32
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Republicans and conservatives -- Bush's base -- are less likely to think it
is important that the new nominee be a woman than are others.
Should the new nominee be conservative? Americans give a mixed response to
this question.
Do you think George W. Bush should nominate someone to the Supreme Court
who is -- [ROTATED: very conservative, somewhat conservative, moderate,
somewhat liberal, (or) very liberal]?
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Very
conservative
|
Somewhat
conservative
|
Moderate
|
Somewhat
liberal
|
Very
liberal
|
No
opinion
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2005 Oct 27
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14%
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23
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34
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16
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8
|
5
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A little more than a third would like the new nominee to be conservative
(with more of these saying "somewhat conservative" than "very conservative").
About one in four say the new nominee should be liberal, and a third say that
the nominee should be moderate.
Not surprisingly, about two-thirds of both conservatives and Republicans say
that the new nominee should be conservative.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 516 national adults, aged 18
and older, conducted Oct. 27, 2005. For results based on the total sample of
national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the margin of sampling
error is ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties
in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public
opinion polls.
Polls conducted entirely in one day, such as this one, are subject to
additional error or bias not found in polls conducted over several days.
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