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Bush Quarterly average only in 18th
percentile
Gallup
by Jeffrey M. Jones
October 21, 2005
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- George W. Bush has now completed 19 quarters in office, and
finds himself at the low point of his presidency with a quarterly average that
puts him in the bottom 20% of all presidential quarters for which Gallup has
job approval measures.
The latest CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll shows Bush with a 39% job approval
rating. Bush's most recent quarterly average -- for the period from July 20 to
Oct. 19 -- is 43.9%. The president's 19th-quarter average represents a
significant decline from his 18th-quarter average of 47.4%, which was, in turn,
a significant decline from a 50.7% average in his 17th quarter in office.
The decline in Bush's job approval rating becomes starkly clear when put in
the context of quarterly averages for all other presidents since Harry Truman.
Bush's 19th-quarter average of 43.9% ranks in just the 18th percentile, meaning
that just 18% of all quarterly averages for all other presidents in Gallup's
historical database have been lower. By way of contrast, Bush's post-Sept. 11
averages in late 2001 and 2002 ranked at or near the top of the quarterly
percentile rankings, scoring in the 94th to 99th percentiles.
Quarter
|
Dates
|
Average (%)
|
Percentile compared to
other presidents since Truman
|
1
|
Jan 20-Apr 19, 2001
|
58.4
|
57
|
2
|
Apr 20-Jul 19, 2001
|
55.8
|
49
|
3
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 2001
|
68.3
|
84
|
4
|
Oct 20, 2001-Jan 19, 2002
|
86.0
|
99
|
5
|
Jan 20-Apr 19, 2002
|
79.5
|
98
|
6
|
Apr 20-Jul 19, 2002
|
74.9
|
94
|
7
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 2002
|
67.7
|
82
|
8
|
Oct 20, 2002-Jan 19, 2003
|
63.5
|
74
|
9
|
Jan 20-Apr 19, 2003
|
63.3
|
73
|
10
|
Apr 20-Jul 19, 2003
|
64.0
|
76
|
11
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 2003
|
55.7
|
49
|
12
|
Oct 20, 2003-Jan 19, 2004
|
55.4
|
48
|
13
|
Jan 20-Apr 19, 2004
|
50.9
|
38
|
14
|
Apr 20-Jul 19, 2004
|
47.9
|
30
|
15
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 2004
|
50.1
|
36
|
16
|
Oct 20, 2004-Jan 19, 2005
|
51.6
|
39
|
17
|
Jan 20,2005-Apr 19, 2005
|
50.7
|
37
|
18
|
Apr 20,2005-Jul 19, 2005
|
47.4
|
28
|
19
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 2005
|
43.9
|
18
|
The sharpest quarter-to-quarter decline in Bush's quarterly approval ratings
came between his 10th and 11th quarters, at a time when approval of the Iraq
war dropped precipitously. The only times at which Bush's ratings went up by at
least a point since his fourth quarter were the two quarters in the midst of
last year's presidential election -- from July 20, 2004, to Jan. 19, 2005, when
his quarterly average rose from the 30th percentile to the 39th
percentile.
There are limited data available to compare Bush's standing with other
presidents' standings at the same point in their presidencies. Only Truman,
Dwight Eisenhower, Lyndon Johnson, Richard Nixon, Ronald Reagan, and Bill
Clinton served second terms, and two of these -- Truman and Johnson --
initially became president on the death of their predecessor.
Bush compares unfavorably with three two-term presidents who served a full
eight years. Eisenhower, Reagan, and Clinton all averaged close to a 60% job
approval rating in their 19th quarters in office.
Nixon, who in July-October 1973 was mired in the Watergate scandal, averaged
a 31.8% approval rating during his 19th quarter in office. During that time,
former White House counsel John Dean alleged that Nixon was aware of plans to
cover up the Watergate burglary. Later, the White House's secret taping system
was revealed, and the Nixon administration refused to turn over the tapes to
the special prosecutor and the Senate committee investigating the
matter.
19th-Quarter
Averages of Recent Presidents
President
|
Dates of 19th quarter
|
19th-quarter
average (%)
|
Number
of polls
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Eisenhower
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1957
|
59.5
|
4
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Nixon
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1973
|
31.8
|
6
|
Reagan
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1985
|
61.3
|
4
|
Clinton
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1997
|
58.8
|
6
|
Bush
|
Jul 20-Oct 19, 2005
|
43.9
|
11
|
Because Truman and Johnson served less than two full terms, their
19th-quarter averages were not their 3rd quarters after being re-elected, as it
was for the other aforementioned presidents. Truman had a 45.0% average during
his 19th quarter in office (October-January 1949) and Johnson had a 41.8%
average in his (April-July 1968). During his 19th term, Johnson was beset by
the problems in Vietnam.
Survey Methods
The averages are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected
national samples of approximately 1,000 adults each, aged 18 and older,
conducted July 20-Oct. 19, 2005.
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