What I Knew Before the
Invasion
Washington Post
Bob Graham
November 20, 2005
In the past week President Bush has twice attacked Democrats for being
hypocrites on the Iraq war. "[M]ore than 100 Democrats in the House and Senate,
who had access to the same intelligence, voted to support removing Saddam
Hussein from power," he said.
The president's attacks are outrageous. Yes, more than 100 Democrats voted
to authorize him to take the nation to war. Most of them, though, like their
Republican colleagues, did so in the legitimate belief that the president and
his administration were truthful in their statements that Saddam Hussein was a
gathering menace -- that if Hussein was not disarmed, the smoking gun would
become a mushroom cloud.
The president has undermined trust. No longer will the members of Congress
be entitled to accept his veracity. Caveat emptor has become the word. Every
member of Congress is on his or her own to determine the truth.
As chairman of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence during the
tragedy of Sept. 11, 2001, and the run-up to the Iraq war, I probably had as
much access to the intelligence on which the war was predicated as any other
member of Congress.
I, too, presumed the president was being truthful -- until a series of
events undercut that confidence.
In February 2002, after a briefing on the status of the war in Afghanistan,
the commanding officer, Gen. Tommy Franks, told me the war was being
compromised as specialized personnel and equipment were being shifted from
Afghanistan to prepare for the war in Iraq -- a war more than a year away. Even
at this early date, the White House was signaling that the threat posed by
Saddam Hussein was of such urgency that it had priority over the crushing of al
Qaeda.
In the early fall of 2002, a joint House-Senate intelligence inquiry
committee, which I co-chaired, was in the final stages of its investigation of
what happened before Sept. 11. As the unclassified final report of the inquiry
documented, several failures of intelligence contributed to the tragedy. But as
of October 2002, 13 months later, the administration was resisting initiating
any substantial action to understand, much less fix, those problems.
At a meeting of the Senate intelligence committee on Sept. 5, 2002, CIA
Director George Tenet was asked what the National Intelligence Estimate (NIE)
provided as the rationale for a preemptive war in Iraq. An NIE is the product
of the entire intelligence community, and its most comprehensive assessment. I
was stunned when Tenet said that no NIE had been requested by the White House
and none had been prepared. Invoking our rarely used senatorial authority, I
directed the completion of an NIE.
Tenet objected, saying that his people were too committed to other
assignments to analyze Saddam Hussein's capabilities and will to use chemical,
biological and possibly nuclear weapons. We insisted, and three weeks later the
community produced a classified NIE.
There were troubling aspects to this 90-page document. While slanted toward
the conclusion that Hussein possessed weapons of mass destruction stored or
produced at 550 sites, it contained vigorous dissents on key parts of the
information, especially by the departments of State and Energy. Particular
skepticism was raised about aluminum tubes that were offered as evidence Iraq
was reconstituting its nuclear program. As to Hussein's will to use whatever
weapons he might have, the estimate indicated he would not do so unless he was
first attacked.
Under questioning, Tenet added that the information in the NIE had not been
independently verified by an operative responsible to the United States. In
fact, no such person was inside Iraq. Most of the alleged intelligence came
from Iraqi exiles or third countries, all of which had an interest in the
United States' removing Hussein, by force if necessary.
The American people needed to know these reservations, and I requested that
an unclassified, public version of the NIE be prepared. On Oct. 4, Tenet
presented a 25-page document titled "Iraq's Weapons of Mass Destruction
Programs." It represented an unqualified case that Hussein possessed them,
avoided a discussion of whether he had the will to use them and omitted the
dissenting opinions contained in the classified version. Its conclusions, such
as "If Baghdad acquired sufficient weapons-grade fissile material from abroad,
it could make a nuclear weapon within a year," underscored the White House's
claim that exactly such material was being provided from Africa to Iraq.
From my advantaged position, I had earlier concluded that a war with Iraq
would be a distraction from the successful and expeditious completion of our
aims in Afghanistan. Now I had come to question whether the White House was
telling the truth -- or even had an interest in knowing the truth.
On Oct. 11, I voted no on the resolution to give the president authority to
go to war against Iraq. I was able to apply caveat emptor. Most of my
colleagues could not.
The writer is a former Democratic senator from Florida. He is currently a
fellow at Harvard University's Institute of Politics.
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