The race for New Jersey governor between the multimillionaires was supposed to be a tight one, or so the final polls said before Tuesday's election. But Douglas R. Forrester, a Republican, lost by a wide margin to Senator Jon S. Corzine, a Democrat, and the chief reason, Mr. Forrester now says, is President Bush's unpopularity.

In an interview published yesterday in The Star-Ledger of Newark, the state's largest newspaper, Mr. Forrester said his campaign had done "all the right things we were supposed to do." Still, he said, he could not overcome a spate of bad news for Mr. Bush, like the administration's handling of Hurricane Katrina.

As a result, he said, "it was not a foolish thing" that Mr. Corzine had sought repeatedly to link him to the Bush administration. "If Bush's numbers were where they were a year ago, or even six months ago, I think we would have won on Tuesday," Mr. Forrester told the newspaper, in his first interview since losing to Mr. Corzine, by 53 percent to 44 percent. "Katrina was the tipping point."

Asked about the interview yesterday, Mr. Forrester's campaign director, Sherry Sylvester, said Mr. Forrester had been accurately quoted. She added that another disadvantage for Mr. Forrester, who was a major fund-raiser for Mr. Bush in 2004, was that Mr. Corzine had spent $15 million more on television advertising than Mr. Forrester.

"Governor-elect Corzine had low approval ratings from New Jerseyans throughout the campaign, but even stronger public disapproval of the president made a Republican victory a very difficult task," she said.

Whether Mr. Forrester's analysis is accurate, and applies as well to Virginia and other places where Republicans performed below expectations, may be impossible to determine. While Mr. Bush did not campaign in New Jersey, Mr. Forrester didn't shy away from welcoming other administration figures, like Vice President Dick Cheney and Karl Rove, the presidential adviser. And in 2002, when a far more popular Mr. Bush campaigned on behalf of Mr. Forrester during his Senate race, Mr. Forrester lost as well - and by 10 percentage points, not 9.

A Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll released on Saturday found that several factors may have conspired to doom Mr. Forrester. Mr. Bush was one. But some voters were put off by other factors, including a negative ad that Mr. Forrester aired in the week before the election, quoting an unkind remark about Mr. Corzine by his ex-wife, Joanne Corzine.

When asked about the New Jersey election, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, Danny Diaz, said, "Local races have always been about local issues."

Still, many Republican politicians are increasingly distancing themselves from Mr. Bush. Last Tuesday, for example, Representative J. D. Hayworth of Arizona flatly declared that he would not want Mr. Bush campaigning on his behalf.

The race for New Jersey governor between the multimillionaires was supposed to be a tight one, or so the final polls said before Tuesday's election. But Douglas R. Forrester, a Republican, lost by a wide margin to Senator Jon S. Corzine, a Democrat, and the chief reason, Mr. Forrester now says, is President Bush's unpopularity.

In an interview published yesterday in The Star-Ledger of Newark, the state's largest newspaper, Mr. Forrester said his campaign had done "all the right things we were supposed to do." Still, he said, he could not overcome a spate of bad news for Mr. Bush, like the administration's handling of Hurricane Katrina.

As a result, he said, "it was not a foolish thing" that Mr. Corzine had sought repeatedly to link him to the Bush administration. "If Bush's numbers were where they were a year ago, or even six months ago, I think we would have won on Tuesday," Mr. Forrester told the newspaper, in his first interview since losing to Mr. Corzine, by 53 percent to 44 percent. "Katrina was the tipping point."

Asked about the interview yesterday, Mr. Forrester's campaign director, Sherry Sylvester, said Mr. Forrester had been accurately quoted. She added that another disadvantage for Mr. Forrester, who was a major fund-raiser for Mr. Bush in 2004, was that Mr. Corzine had spent $15 million more on television advertising than Mr. Forrester.

"Governor-elect Corzine had low approval ratings from New Jerseyans throughout the campaign, but even stronger public disapproval of the president made a Republican victory a very difficult task," she said.

Whether Mr. Forrester's analysis is accurate, and applies as well to Virginia and other places where Republicans performed below expectations, may be impossible to determine. While Mr. Bush did not campaign in New Jersey, Mr. Forrester didn't shy away from welcoming other administration figures, like Vice President Dick Cheney and Karl Rove, the presidential adviser. And in 2002, when a far more popular Mr. Bush campaigned on behalf of Mr. Forrester during his Senate race, Mr. Forrester lost as well - and by 10 percentage points, not 9.

A Star-Ledger/Eagleton-Rutgers poll released on Saturday found that several factors may have conspired to doom Mr. Forrester. Mr. Bush was one. But some voters were put off by other factors, including a negative ad that Mr. Forrester aired in the week before the election, quoting an unkind remark about Mr. Corzine by his ex-wife, Joanne Corzine.

When asked about the New Jersey election, a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, Danny Diaz, said, "Local races have always been about local issues."

Still, many Republican politicians are increasingly distancing themselves from Mr. Bush. Last Tuesday, for example, Representative J. D. Hayworth of Arizona flatly declared that he would not want Mr. Bush campaigning on his behalf.

Commentary:
Two major problems with this story. Bush's popularity in NJ was at 35% in mid August, BEFORE Katrina (end of August) according to Survey USA Poll so Katrina wasn't the "turning point." Second, if the election were held six months ago (and assuming Bush was the cause of his defeat) then the May 2005 poll put Bush at 37% so Bush was always the problem, not just post-Katrina.

So why did Forrester lose? Who knows. But one thing is for sure. The polls were all wrong - which usually means one of two things; first, more dems and independents voted for the democrat to two, more republicans decided to stay home than the polls expected.

Some polls say voters were casting their votes to send a message to Bush (NBC/WSJ poll). Bush violated the first rule of politics. When your policies are supported by a majority, they'll stick with you during good times and bad. But when Americans like the man but hate his policies, they'll walk away. After Clinton was impeached, his approval ratings soared - because his policies were supported. The GOP doesn't get it. They still think Americans are conservative. We're not. We've always wanted change -it's built into our political system (elections every two years). Liberals are the party of change so our country was founded on the liberal ideology.