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Poll: CIA as Big as Watergate
CBS News
November 2, 2005
(CBS) Most Americans believe someone in the Bush Administration did leak
Valerie Plame's name to reporters – even though Special Prosecutor
Patrick Fitzgerald indicted no one for doing that. Half of the public describes
the matter as something of great importance to the country, and this poll finds
low assessments of both the President and the Vice President – with the
President's overall approval rating dropping again to its lowest point
ever.
The nomination of Samuel Alito to the Supreme Court has had minimal impact
so far, and assessments of the war in Iraq remain negative – with more
than ever before saying the Administration was less than honest in discussing
their reasons for war.
There is one less dark spot — perhaps reflecting lower gas prices, far
fewer now than one month ago are pessimistic about the future of the
economy.
ASSESSING THE INDICTMENTS
The indictments handed down last week against former Vice-Presidential Chief
of Staff I. Lewis "Scooter" Libby included perjury — but they did not
charge Libby or anyone else with actually leaking the name of agent Valerie
Plame. However, six in ten Americans believe that someone in the Bush
Administration did leak her name. This is up from July, when 52 percent thought
so. One-quarter today, as in July, aren't sure.
DID SOMEONE IN BUSH ADMIN. LEAK AGENT'S NAME?
Yes
Now
62%
7/2005
52%
No
Now
14%
7/2005
21%
Don't know
Now
24%
7/2005
27%
Many Americans will withhold judgment on Scooter Libby for now: 54 percent
say they can't tell now if they think the charges against Libby are true or
not. Of those with an opinion, the overwhelming number thinks the charges
against him are probably true.
ARE THE CHARGES AGAINST LIBBY TRUE?
Yes, probably true 39%
No, probably not 4%
Haven't heard enough to say 54%
Many Americans have not focused on the role of Karl Rove, the President's
Deputy Chief of Staff, who was not charged with any crime last week: half says
they don't know if Rove did anything wrong or not.
KARL ROVE: HIS ACTIONS IN CIA MATTER WERE…
Wrong & unethical 14%
Wrong & illegal 8%
Wrong, unethical AND illegal 7%
Did nothing wrong 19%
Don't know 51%
Americans view the actions of Rove differently from the actions of Libby,
who was charged. Just one in three thinks anything Rove may have done would be
serious enough to warrant prosecution, and many – four in ten –
can't say at this point. As for Libby, 61 percent do think his actions are
serious enough to deserve prosecution.
LIBBY & ROVE: DO THEIR ACTIONS DESERVE PROSECUTION?
Libby
Yes
61%
No
14%
Don't know
25%
Rove
Yes
36%
No
24%
Don't know
40%
Nearly two-thirds of Americans – 64 percent - say they have heard at
least something about the investigation, including 27 percent who have heard a
lot about it and 37 percent who have heard some. Last July, 19 percent had
heard a lot about it. Still, even after Friday's indictments, more than a third
say they've heard little or nothing about the investigation.
HAVE YOU HEARD OR READ ABOUT CIA LEAK INVESTIGATION?
A lot
Now
27%
7/2005
19%
Some
Now
37%
7/2005
35%
Not much/none
Now
36%
7/2005
45%
51 percent say the CIA leak is of great importance to the nation. This
exceeds the 41 percent who, in January of 1998, said the matter between
then-President Bill Clinton and Monica Lewinsky was of great importance. It is
closer to the 48 percent who gave such a level of import to Iran-Contra in
February, 1987, although that was a few months after the scandal had broken. 53
percent placed Watergate in that category in a 1973 Gallup poll, which was also
some months after the news had broken. Just 20 percent thought the Whitewater
scandal in March, 1994 was of great importance.
HOW IMPORTANT TO THE NATION IS THE CIA LEAK MATTER?
CIA Leak
Great importance
51%
Some importance
35%
Little/no importance
12%
Clinton-Lewinsky (1/98)
Great importance
41%
Some importance
21%
Little/no importance
37%
Whitewater (3/94)
Great importance
20%
Some importance
29%
Little/no importance
45%
Iran-Contra (2/87)
Great importance
48%
Some importance
33%
Little/no importance
19%
Watergate (5/73; Gallup Poll)
Great importance
53%
Some importance
25%
Little/no importance
22%
Six in ten Democrats say the matter is of great importance, compared to four
in ten Republicans who agree. However, more than eight in ten Republicans rate
it as at least somewhat important.
But as serious as it may be, Americans also see politics in the
investigation, too. 51 percent describe it as mostly politics, while 43 percent
say it is a very serious matter concerning the honesty of the White House.
During the midst of the Watergate scandal in August 1973, 46 percent of
Americans in a Harris Poll saw that matter as mostly politics, too.
THE CIA LEAK MATTER: MOSTLY POLITICS?
Yes 51%
No 43%
ASSESSING HONESTY
Some critics of the Bush Administration have seen the leak investigation as
part of a larger theme, the rationale behind the Iraq war. When asked if the
administration was telling all or most of what they knew about weapons of mass
destruction in Iraq, 32 percent of Americans think they were. But slightly more
– 38 percent- think the Bush Administration was hiding important elements
of what they knew, and another quarter believe they were mostly lying about
Iraq's weapons of mass destruction before taking military action. The number
who thinks the Administration was either hiding something or lying is the
highest ever in CBS News polls.
BEFORE THE WAR, WHEN TALKING ABOUT WEAPONS IN IRAQ,
BUSH ADMINISTRATION WAS…
Telling all/most of what they knew
Now
32%
1/2005
37%
2/2004
40%
Hiding important elements
Now
38%
1/2005
36%
2/2004
39%
Mostly lying about weapons
Now
26%
1/2005
23%
2/2004
16%
In general, Americans don't excuse deception. 78 percent of Americans
believe that lying, generally, is never justified, while 15 percent think it
sometimes is. In 1998, during the Clinton–Lewinsky scandal, 69 percent
said lying, generally, is never justified.
President Bush has not been mentioned in the investigation into the leak of
Valerie Plame's name, and most Americans say George W. Bush has at least as
much or more honesty and integrity than most others in public life. In
mid-2004, a majority of registered voters said this as well. However,
assessments of Bush's overall honesty may have been damaged by the 2004
campaign; at the start of that year, half the public thought he had more
honesty and integrity than most people in public life. That has dropped more
than 10 points since then.
COMPARED TO MOST PEOPLE IN PUBLIC LIFE, BUSH'S HONESTY & INTEGRITY
IS…
More
Today
39%
7/2004 (reg.)
39%
2/2004
50%
About same
27%
7/2004 (reg.)
27%
2/2004
25%
Less
29%
7/2004 (reg.)
25%
2/2004
14%
Overall, the Bush Administration fares much less well, though just over half
the public agrees most members are at least as honest as most people in public
life.
COMPARED TO MOST PEOPLE IN PUBLIC LIFE, BUSH & HIS ADMINISTRATION'S
HONESTY IS…
Bush Administration
More
20%
About same
35%
Less
31%
George W. Bush
More
39%
About same
27%
Less
29%
ASSESSING THE PRESIDENT AND VICE PRESIDENT
Favorable views of George W. Bush are down eleven points since the beginning of
the year. Much of this drop has come among Independents: in January at the
start of his second term, 41 percent of Independents gave President Bush a
favorable rating; today 28 percent do.
The events of this year have also taken a toll on opinions about Vice
President Dick Cheney. Today the Vice-President receives only a 19 percent
favorable rating from Americans; in January it was 28 percent.
VIEWS OF GEORGE W. BUSH AND DICK CHENEY
George W. Bush
Favorable
Now
33%
1/2005
44%
Unfavorable
Now
51%
1/2005
40%
Undecided/can't say
Now
15%
1/2005
16%
Dick Cheney
Favorable
Now
19%
1/2005
28%
Unfavorable
Now
44%
1/2005
33%
Undecided/can't say
Now
36%
1/2005
38%
The President's job approval rating is now 35 percent, his lowest rating
since taking office in 2001. More than half the public disapproves of the job
he is doing as president.
PRESIDENT BUSH'S JOB APPROVAL
Approve
35%
Disapprove
57%
77 percent of Republicans approve of his job performance, and the President
retains the support of some of his key constituencies. 61 percent of white
evangelicals approve of the job he is doing (up from 55 percent a month ago),
as do 54 percent of conservatives.
Democrats give the President widespread disapproval, and he gets little
support from those Americans who profess no strong ties to either side of the
ideological divide. Only 31 percent of Independents and 30 percent of moderates
now approve of the job he is doing (nearly the same as a month ago).
BUSH'S JOB APPROVAL RATING AMONG GROUPS
Overall
Now
38%
10/3-5/2005
37%
Republicans
77%
10/3-5/2005
79%
Democrats
11%
10/3-5/2005
14%
Independents
31%
10/3-5/2005
29%
Liberals
14%
10/3-5/2005
15%
Moderates
30%
10/3-5/2005
28%
Conservatives
54%
10/3-5/2005
62%
White Evangelicals
61%
10/3-5/2005
55%
Bush's low job approval is far below that of some of his two-term
predecessors at this point in their second terms. In November 1985, President
Reagan had a 65 percent approval rating, and Bill Clinton's job approval in
November 1997 was 57 percent. Bush's rating is higher than Richard Nixon's was
at the same point in his administration.
BUSH VS. OTHER PRESIDENTS: APPROVAL RATINGS DURING SECOND TERMS
Bush, Now
Approve
35%
Disapprove
57%
Clinton, 11/1997
Approve
57%
Disapprove
31%
Reagan, 11/1985
Approve
65%
Disapprove
26%
Nixon, Gallup Poll, 11/1973
Approve
27%
Disapprove
63%
Eisenhower, Gallup Poll, 11/1957
Approve
58%
Disapprove
27%
Both Reagan and Clinton endured scandals during their second terms. In
January 1998, when facing questions about his affair with Monica Lewinsky,
President Clinton's job approval ratings actually rose, reaching the low 70s,
and remained at least in the 60s throughout the rest of that year. President
Reagan's job approval rating dropped by more than 20 points to 46 percent in
November 1986, just after public disclosures about the Iran-Contra scandal.
During 1987 Reagan's approval rating hovered around 50 percent, but began to
rise again in 1988. President Richard Nixon's approval rating fell as the
Watergate scandal became public in the first half of 1973, and was at about 25
percent during 1974.
President Bush's approval rating has been experiencing a slow but steady
decline since 2004.
BUSH VS. OTHER PRESIDENTS: APPROVAL RATINGS DURING SCANDALS
Bush,
Now
Approve 35%
Disapprove 57%
Clinton
1/1998
Approve 58%
Disapprove 29%
2/1998
Approve 72%
Disapprove 22%
7/1998
Approve 64%
Disapprove 29%
10/1998
Approve 65%
Disapprove 30%
12/1998
Approve 66%
Disapprove 30%
Reagan
11/1986
Approve 46%
Disapprove 45%
1/1987
Approve 52%
Disapprove 38%
5/1987
Approve 46%
Disapprove 43%
9/1987
Approve 50%
Disapprove 40%
1/1988
Approve 58%
Disapprove 35%
Nixon (Gallup)
1/1973
Approve 51%
Disapprove 37%
6/1973
Approve 44%
Disapprove 45%
1/1974
Approve 27%
Disapprove 63%
8/1974
Approve 24%
Disapprove 66%
The President's ratings on specific issues also remain low, but are not much
changed since last month.
PRES. BUSH JOB APPROVALS
Overall
Now
35%
10/2005
37%
Terrorism
Now
47%
10/2005
46%
Iraq
Now
32%
10/2005
32%
Economy
Now
34%
10/2005
32%
Evaluations of President Bush's leadership fell markedly in the wake of
Hurricane Katrina in early September, and have yet to recover. 49 percent of
Americans think Bush has strong qualities of leadership, 47 percent think he
does not. Before the hurricane (and throughout much of his prior time as
president) about two thirds of the public saw Bush as a strong leader.
DOES BUSH HAVE STRONG QUALITIES OF LEADERSHIP?
Yes
Now
49%
9/2005
48%
1/2004
64%
5/2003
70%
2/2001
59%
No
Now
47%
9/2005
49%
1/2004
33%
5/2003
26%
2/2001
31%
A sizable segment of the public is concerned about the President's ties to
evangelical Christians; 34 percent think evangelicals have too much influence
in Bush's decisions. 14 percent think they have too little influence, while 25
percent think their influence is about right. 45 percent of white evangelicals
themselves think they have about the right amount of influence, while another
25 percent think they have too little.
EVANGELICALS' INFLUENCE ON BUSH'S DECISIONS
Too much
Now 34%
11/2003 31%
Too little
Now 14%
11/2004 12%
About right
Now 25%
11/2004 35%
ASSESSING IRAQ
The public continues to have doubts about U.S. involvement in Iraq; half thinks
U.S. troops should leave as soon as possible. And views on whether the U.S.
should have entered the war in the first place have changed little over the
past few months. Half of Americans think the U.S. should have stayed out of
Iraq, while 42 percent think taking military action there was the right thing
to do.
DID U.S. DO THE RIGHT THING GOING TO WAR WITH IRAQ?
Right thing
Now 42%
10/2005 41%
9/2005 44%
Should have stayed out
Now 50%
10/2005 55%
9/2005 50%
64 percent say the result of the war with Iraq wasn't worth the loss of
American life and the war's other costs; 31 percent think it was.
IS RESULT OF WAR IN IRAQ WORTH ITS COSTS?
Yes
Now 31%
10/2005 32%
No
Now 64%
10/2005 64%
Moreover, Americans do not think U.S. efforts to bring stability and order
to Iraq are going well. 57 percent think things are going badly for the U.S. in
Iraq right now, while 40 percent say things are going well for the U.S.
As for Iraq's future, the public remains divided on whether Iraq will ever
become a stable democracy. 48 percent think that will never happen, but about
as many think it will. Most of those who foresee a stable democracy in Iraq say
it will take longer than a year or two for that to occur.
WILL IRAQ BECOME STABLE DEMOCRACY?
Yes, in next year or two 3%
Yes, will take longer 46%
No, never 48%
As casualties mount, half of Americans think U.S. troops should leave Iraq
as soon as possible, but 43 percent think they should stay until Iraq is stable
even if that takes a long time. The number who want troops to leave soon is
down from last month.
U.S. TROOPS IN IRAQ SHOULD…
Stay as long as it takes
Now 43%
10/2005 36%
9/2005 42%
2/2005 55%
6/2004 54%
Leave as soon as possible
Now 50%
10/2005 59%
9/2005 52%
2/2005 40%
6/2004 40%
ASSESSING THE SUPREME COURT NOMINATIONS
Overall, the public is not completely comfortable with the President's
decision-making about Supreme Court nominees: 54 percent are uneasy about who
the president will select for the Supreme Court, while 38 percent have
confidence that Bush will nominate good justices. But the recent withdrawal of
Bush's Supreme Court nominee Harriet Miers and the confirmation of John Roberts
as Chief Justice do not appear to have had much effect on these views; in July,
prior to Bush making any Supreme Court selections, a majority of Americans were
uneasy about who he might choose.
BUSH'S SUPREME COURT NOMINEES:
Confident
Now 38%
7/2005 46%
Uneasy
Now 54%
7/2005 52%
On Monday, President Bush nominated Judge Samuel Alito as Associate Justice
to the Supreme Court, to replace the retiring Sandra Day O'Connor. At this
early stage, Judge Alito is unknown to most Americans: Eight in 10 of those
interviewed after he was named are unable to offer an opinion of him. Among
those with an opinion, 11 percent have a favorable one, while 7 percent view
him unfavorably.
This immediate public reaction to Judge Alito (in interviews conducted
Monday and Tuesday) is somewhat different from the immediate reaction to
Harriet Miers. Most Americans also were unable to voice an opinion of Miers
immediately after the announcement of her nomination, but those with an opinion
were very much divided: 11% viewed her favorably, while the same number viewed
her unfavorably. The public's first read on John Roberts, ten days after
President Bush nominated him, was much more positive than opinions of either
Alito or Miers.
OPINIONS OF RECENT SUPREME COURT NOMINEES
Alito
Favorable 11%
Unfavorable 7%
Undecided/haven't heard enough 81%
Miers
Favorable 11%
Unfavorable 11%
Undecided/haven't heard enough 77%
Roberts
Favorable 25%
Unfavorable 7%
Undecided/haven't heard enough 68%
In this poll, 26 percent of Republicans hold a favorable view of Judge
Alito, compared to just 2% of Democrats.
In early October, Americans were split as to whether Miers should be
confirmed. Today, 15 percent think Judge Alito should be confirmed as an
Associate Justice to the Supreme Court, while 7 percent say the Senate should
vote against him. Three-quarters cannot say whether he should be confirmed or
not – a typical number this early in the confirmation process.
SHOULD ALITO BE CONFIRMED?
Yes 15%
No 7%
Can't say 75%
After three nominations to the Supreme Court, including one confirmation and
one withdrawal, fewer than half of Americans describe the president's
nominations as "about right" ideologically. 30 percent of Americans say
President Bush's nominees to the U.S. Supreme Court have been more conservative
than they would like, while just 16 percent believe Bush's nominees have not
been conservative enough.
GEORGE W. BUSH'S SUPREME COURT NOMINEES HAVE BEEN…
Too conservative 30%
Not conservative enough 16%
About right 45%
Conservatives appear ideologically content with the President's nominations;
66 percent say his nominees have been about right. In addition, 68 percent of
white evangelicals say Bush's nominations to the Supreme Court have been about
right.
Americans want the Senate to consider a Supreme Court nominee's positions on
the issues in addition to his or her legal qualifications. The public was much
more divided on this question back in July, prior to the nomination of John
Roberts.
WHEN EVALUATING A COURT NOMINEE, SENATE SHOULD CONSIDER:
Legal qualifications only
Now 35%
9/2005 36%
7/2005 45%
Positions on issues also
Now 54%
9/2005 54%
7/2005 47%
ASSESSING THE ECONOMY AND THE STATE OF THE COUNTRY
The public's views of the nation's economy have improved slightly from last
month, but half still say the economy is in bad shape.
VIEWS OF THE ECONOMY
Good
Now 47%
10/2005 43%
9/2005 49%
Bad
Now 51%
10/2005 55%
9/2005 50%
But there is even better news on the economic front. Today, 40 percent think
the economy is getting worse – down 14 points from the 54 percent who
thought that last month. 16 percent now say the economy is getting better,
while 44 percent say it is staying the same.
ECONOMY IS GETTING:
Better
Now 16%
10/2005 10%
Worse
Now 40%
10/2005 54%
Same
Now 44%
10/2005 34%
The economy remains one of the most important issues Americans want the
government to address, outranked only by the war with Iraq. These are followed
by such issues as terrorism, gas and oil prices, and health care.
U.S. MOST IMPORTANT PROBLEM
Now
War in Iraq 21%
Economy and jobs 17%
Terrorism 5%
Education 4%
Gas/oil crisis 4%
Health care 4%
President Bush 4%
10/2005
War in Iraq 18%
Economy and jobs 6%
Terrorism 4%
Education 4%
Gas/oil crisis 5%
Health care 2%
President Bush 5%
Americans continue to hold a dim view of the state of the country overall.
68 percent say things in the U.S. are pretty seriously off on the wrong track,
while just 27 percent think things are going in the right direction.
DIRECTION OF THE COUNTRY
Right direction
Now 27%
10/2005 26%
Wrong track
Now 68%
10/2005 69%
ASSESSING THE ADMINISTRATION
While many Americans consider the CIA leak matter serious, the overwhelming
majority of them admit they really know little about two of its main figures
– Scooter Libby and Karl Rove. Those who do offer views on the two offer
negative ones.
VIEWS OF LIBBY, ROVE
'Scooter' Libby
Favorable 4%
Unfavorable 25%
Undecided/can't say 71%
Karl Rove
Favorable 7%
Unfavorable 25%
Undecided/can't say 68%
One Administration official did stand out as favorably-regarded: Secretary
of State Condoleezza Rice. Secretary Rice is seen favorably by 41 percnet and
unfavorably by only 19 percent, more than a 2-to-1 margin. Still, four in 10
Americans are either undecided on her or haven't heard enough about her to
offer an opinion.
VIEWS OF CONDOLEEZZA RICE
Favorable 41%
Unfavorable 19%
Undecided/ Can't say 40%
ASSESSING CONGRESS
Most of the interviewing for this poll was conducted before the Democrats
forced the Senate into closed session on Tuesday. Congressional approval
ratings remain quite low, although about as many approve of Congress as approve
of President Bush. They have been low most of this year. 34 percent now approve
of the job Congress is doing.
CONGRESS JOB APPROVAL
Approve
Now 34%
10/2005 31%
3/2005 34%
1/2005 44%
Disapprove
Now53%
10/2005 57%
3/2005 49%
1/2005 39%
Continuing a trend seen earlier this year, the Democrats in Congress are
viewed in a more positive light than the Republicans, although both are low. 4
percent view the Democrats in Congress favorably, while 35 percent say the same
about the Republicans.
But the Republicans may be doing a better job than Democrats at satisfying
their own constituents. 62 percent of Democrats have a favorable view of the
Democrats in Congress, while 29 percent are unfavorable. Among Republicans, 71
percent have a favorable view of Republican members of Congress, and only 20
percent have an unfavorable view.
This poll was conducted among a nationwide random sample of 936 adults,
interviewed by telephone October 30-November 1, 2005. The error due to sampling
for results based on the entire sample could be plus or minus three percentage
points.
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