IMPEACH BUSH

GALLUP NEWS SERVICE

PRINCETON, NJ -- A new USA Today/Gallup poll suggests actor and former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson could be a factor in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, should he decide to enter. Included for the first time in this poll, Thompson places third behind front-runner Rudy Giuliani and second-place John McCain. There has been little change in the Democratic ballot in recent weeks, other than a slight improvement for John Edwards. Hillary Rodham Clinton remains the Democratic leader, with Barack Obama, Al Gore, and Edwards also getting significant support.

Republican Ballot

One of the major themes running through early media coverage of the Republican campaign is the idea that Republicans are unenthusiastic about the existing field of candidates. The current group of candidates is thought to be either too moderate (Giuliani and McCain), too unknown (Sam Brownback, Mike Huckabee, and Jim Gilmore) or both (Mitt Romney and Chuck Hagel). There has been constant speculation that some well-known and unquestionably conservative candidate would enter the race to fill this perceived vacuum. Some have long thought Newt Gingrich would be that person, though his unpopularity among the general public casts serious doubts on his ability to win the presidential election. More recently, Thompson -- who served in the U.S. Senate from 1994 to 2003 but retired and returned to acting -- has said he would consider entering the race.

In his debut in Gallup's Republican primary trial heat, 12% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents say they would be most likely to support Fred Thompson for the party's 2008 presidential nomination. That is good enough for third place in the crowded field of 14 candidates, behind Giuliani (31%) and McCain (22%), according to the March 23-25 poll.

Preference for Republican Presidential Nomination, Recent Gallup Polls

Giuliani had held a significant and growing lead over McCain and the rest of the field in the prior two USA Today/Gallup polls. While still enjoying a significant lead in the current poll, Giuliani's support has dropped from 44% earlier this month to 31%, and his lead has shrunk from 24 percentage points to 9 points. McCain's support is holding steady at 22%. At 8%, Gingrich is the only other candidate with more than 5% support. Romney has been at 5% or better in each of the prior three polls, but is at 3% in the latest test ballot.

Giuliani's shrinking lead in the latest poll has to do with both the inclusion of Fred Thompson in the trial heat as well as a more general drop in support. While Giuliani's 74% favorable rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents is down from the prior poll (78%), the four-point drop among Republicans is not statistically meaningful. However, when the ballot is reconfigured to simulate Thompson not being in the race (by substituting Thompson voters' second choice) Giuliani nets out to 35% support, still down nine points from the previous poll.

There has been a slight change in Republicans' preferences when they are asked to choose between Giuliani and McCain in a one-on-one match-up. In the current poll, Giuliani holds a 54% to 39% advantage on this measure of support, compared with 58% to 34% in the prior poll. Giuliani has maintained a significant lead on this head-to-head ballot since February.

Rank-and-file Republicans' ratings of each of the leading candidates provide some evidence that the party base is unenthusiastic with the choice of presidential candidates. Only Giuliani is highly popular with the Republican base, based on his 74% favorable rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. Meanwhile, slightly more than half of Republicans have a positive view of McCain (59%) and Gingrich (52%). Romney remains an unknown quantity to about half of Republicans, but is rated more favorably than unfavorably by those who offer an opinion. [Fred Thompson's favorable ratings were not measured in the current poll.]

McCain has seen a drop in his favorable rating among the party base from an average of 68% in February and early March to 59% in the latest poll. And while the slight drop in Giuliani's rating from the early March poll is not significant, the larger seven-point drop from February is. Romney's positive scores have inched up as he has become somewhat better known.

Favorable Ratings for Leading Republican Candidates
Among RepublicanandRepublican Leaners, Recent Gallup Polls

McCain's favorable rating is still above the majority level among all Americans (51%), testifying to his greater appeal among independents and Democrats than what Republican politicians normally receive. Giuliani's 60% nationwide favorable rating is the highest among the leading contenders of either party, and he, too, has relatively strong ratings among Democrats. Gingrich is the only major candidate of either party who is viewed more unfavorably (48%) than favorably (29%) by Americans.

Democratic Ballot

Democrats' preferences for their party's 2008 presidential nomination have been fairly stable since early February. In the current poll, 35% of Democrats say they are most likely to support Clinton for the nomination. Obama is next, at 22%. Gore maintains the slightly higher level of support (17%) he received following the Oscars, at which his global warming documentary won two awards. Edwards is now supported by 14%, up from 9% in early March, but similar to the levels of support he enjoyed in February and early March (13%). That suggests little effect from the recent news that his wife, Elizabeth, has had a recurrence of cancer, and their decision to continue with his presidential campaign.

Outside the four leading contenders, no more than 3% of Democrats support any other Democratic candidate in the latest ballot. Moreover, among the lesser candidates, only Joe Biden has registered as much as 5% in any Gallup Poll this year.

Preference for Democratic Presidential Nomination, Recent Gallup Polls

Gore has indicated he does not plan to run, but has not ruled out a bid, either. When substituting Gore voters' second choice for their Gore vote on the ballot, the results suggest Clinton's support would increase to 42% and her lead over Obama (24%) would stretch to 18 points if Gore were not in the race. Edwards would receive 17% of the vote in this scenario, with every other candidate at 4% or less.

Preference for Democratic Presidential Nomination Excluding Al Gore,
Recent Gallup Polls

Clinton also maintains a significant lead over Obama (56% to 37%) when the two are matched one-on-one, and has led him by a wide margin each time the question has been asked.

Even though Clinton is the clear front-runner, one set of numbers does not work in her favor. In the latest poll, more Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents rate Gore (84%) favorably than Clinton (74%). Edwards' favorable rating is 70% among Democrats and Obama's is 65%. Obama's lower rating is attributable to the fact he is less well known, as 21% of Democrats are not familiar enough with him to rate him. That compares with 4% having no opinion of Clinton, 5% of Gore, and 20% of Edwards.

In recent weeks, Clinton's favorability ratings among Democrats have declined somewhat, from 80% or better to the current 74%. Meanwhile, Gore's image has improved from 72% in early February to 84% today. Edwards' popularity also received a small boost following the announcement of his wife's recurrence of cancer. Views of Obama have held steady in recent weeks.

Favorable Ratings for Leading Democratic Candidates
Among Democrats and Democratic Leaners, Recent Gallup Polls

At this point, it does not appear that Gore has been able to capitalize on his heightened popularity among Democrats, given the only modest increase in his support on the nomination trial heat in recent weeks, and that he still trails Clinton by a wide margin on that measure. This could be partly attributable to his apparent reluctance to run, which may cause some Democrats who might otherwise support him to not do so. It could also reflect a desire to nominate "new blood," as Gore was unsuccessful in winning the presidency in 2000 as the Democratic nominee.

Of note is that Clinton's favorable rating among all Americans (48%) has dipped below 50% for the first time since early 2003, prior to the release of her autobiography. Gore (56%), Edwards (55%), and Obama (53%) now receive higher favorable ratings among the general public than does Clinton.

Clinton's ability to win the general election is likely to be an issue throughout the campaign. While the sub-50% favorable rating does not mean she is doomed to lose, it does not cast her chances in a favorable light relative to her chief rivals.

Survey Methods

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,007 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 23-25, 2007. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

For results based on the sample of 429 Republicans or Republican leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.

For results based on the sample of 493 Democrats or Democratic leaners, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±5 percentage points.