Most Americans Say Bush Has No Clear Plan for Iraq

PRINCETON, NJ -- Only days before the third anniversary of the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq, President George W. Bush yesterday gave the first in a series of speeches designed to convince the American public he has a strategy for victory. A CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll conducted over this past weekend suggests it will be tough going for the president. Only 32% of Americans believe he has a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq, while 67% say he does not.

Generally, people have been more skeptical than positive about Bush's Iraq planning, but the current poll shows the highest number of Americans expressing skepticism since Gallup first asked the question in August 2003.

This negative sentiment comes amid recent news reports of intense fighting in Iraq and the possibility that a civil war is imminent. The poll shows only 38% of Americans say the war is going well in Iraq, while 60% say it is going badly -- including 28% who say "very" badly.

These are the most negative numbers Gallup has measured on this question in almost two years. The last time less than 40% of Americans said things were going well was in April/May 2004, following the fighting in Fallujah and the revelations of the prison abuses in Abu Ghraib. In February and early March 2005, optimism increased following the first elections in Iraq to form a provisional government. In the following months, with renewed fighting, optimism declined. There was a slight uptick in January of this year, again following elections, this time for a permanent government, but ongoing sectarian violence has since caused Americans to view the war more pessimistically.

With all of the bad news, 57% of Americans believe it was a mistake to go to war in the first place. This is the second-highest percentage Gallup has measured on this question, just under the 59% who expressed this view last September.

The poll also asked whether Democrats in Congress have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq, and 68% said no, while just 25% said yes.

Do you think the Democrats in Congress do -- or do not -- have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?

These results might suggest that the low ratings for Bush do not signify a problem for the president or the Republicans, because Americans are no more confident in the Democrats than they are in Bush. But a separate question that asks people to specify which party in Congress could do a better job in dealing with Iraq finds an eight-point advantage for the Democrats over Republicans, 48% to 40%.

Do you think the Republicans in Congress or the Democrats in Congress would do a better job of dealing with each of the following issues and problems?

These views are not much different from what Gallup measured last October, but they show a major reversal in confidence from three years ago.

Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,001 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Mar. 10-12, 2006. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.

In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.

8. In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?

	Yes, a mistake	No, not	No opinion
Iraq	%	%	%
2006 Mar 10-12 ^	57	42	1
2006 Feb 28-Mar 1	55	43	2
2006 Feb 9-12 ^	55	42	3
2006 Jan 6-8 ^	50	47	3
2005 Dec 16-18	52	46	2
2005 Dec 9-11	48	50	2
2005 Nov 11-13 ^	54	45	1
2005 Oct 28-30	54	45	1
2005 Oct 21-23	49	49	2
2005 Sep 16-18	59	39	2
2005 Sep 8-11	53	46	1
2005 Aug 28-30	53	46	1
2005 Aug 5-7 ^	54	44	2
2005 Jul 22-24	46	53	1
2005 Jun 24-26	53	46	1
2005 Apr 29-May 1 ^	49	48	3
2005 Mar 18-20 ^	46	51	3
2005 Feb 25-27	47	51	2
2005 Feb 4-6	45	55	*
2005 Jan 14-16	52	47	1
2005 Jan 7-9	50	48	2
2004 Nov 19-21	47	51	2
2004 Oct 29-31 ^	44	52	4
2004 Oct 22-24	47	51	2
2004 Oct 14-16	47	52	1
2004 Oct 9-10 ^	46	53	1
2004 Oct 1-3	48	51	1
2004 Sep 24-26	42	55	3
2004 Sep 3-5 ^	38	57	5
2004 Aug 23-25 ^	48	50	2
2004 Jul 30-Aug 1	47	51	2
2004 Jul 19-21	50	47	3
2004 Jul 8-11 ^	54	45	1
2004 Jun 21-23 ^	54	44	2
2004 Jun 3-6 ^	41	58	1
2004 May 7-9 ^	44	54	2
2004 Apr 16-18 ^	42	57	1
2004 Jan 12-15 ^	42	56	2
2003 Nov 3-5 ^	39	60	1
2003 Oct 6-8 ^	40	59	1
2003 Jul 7-9 ^	27	72	1
2003 Mar 24-25 ^	23	75	2
Afghanistan
2004 Jul 19-21	25	72	3
2002 Jan 7-9	6	93	1
2001 Nov 8-11	9	89	2
Yugoslavia
1999 Jun 4-5	43	53	4
1999 Apr 21	42	51	7
Persian Gulf War
1991 Jul 18-21	15	82	3
1991 Feb 28-Mar 3	10	87	3
1991 Feb 7-10	21	76	3
1991 Jan 30-Feb 2	18	80	2
1991 Jan 23-26	18	77	5
1991 Jan 17-20	16	80	4
1991 Jan 11-13	29	65	6
1991 Jan 3-6	30	61	9
1990 Dec 6-9	28	66	6
1990 Nov 29-Dec 2	29	66	5
1990 Nov 15-18	27	65	8
1990 Nov 8-11	27	68	5
1990 Nov 2-4	25	67	8
1990 Aug 30-Sep 2	16	76	8
1990 Aug 23-26	18	76	6
1990 Aug 16-19	17	75	8
1990 Aug 30-Sep 2	16	76	8
1990 Aug 23-26	18	76	6
1990 Aug 16-19	17	75	8
1990 Oct 25-28	24	71	5
1990 Oct 18-21	26	67	7
1990 Oct 11-14	27	68	5
1990 Oct 3-4	21	71	8
1990 Sep 27-30	20	73	7
1990 Sep 14-16	18	73	10
1990 Sep 10-11	19	76	5
Vietnam War
2000 Nov 13-15	69	24	7
1995 Apr 21-24	71	23	6
1990 Mar 15-18	74	22	4
1973 Jan 12-15	60	29	11
1971 May 14-17	61	28	11
1971 Jan 8-11	60	31	9
1970 May 21-26	56	36	8
1970 Apr 2-7	51	34	15
1970 Jan 15-20	57	32	11
1969 Sep 17-22	58	32	10
1969 Jan 23-28	52	39	9
1968 Sep 26-Oct 1	54	37	9
1968 Aug 7-12	53	35	12
1968 Apr 4-9	48	40	12
1968 Feb 22-27	49	42	9
1968 Feb 1-6	46	42	12
1967 Dec 7-12	45	46	9
1967 Oct 6-11	47	44	9
1967 Jul 13-18	41	48	11
1967 Apr 19-24	37	50	13
1967 Jan 26-31	32	52	16
1966 Nov 10-15	31	52	17
1966 Sep 8-13	35	48	17
1966 May 5-10	36	49	15
1966 Mar 3-8	26	59	15
1965 Aug 27-Sep 1	24	60	16
Korean War
2000 Jun 6-7	34	47	19
1953 Jan 11-16	36	50	14
1952 Oct 17-22	43	37	19
1952 Oct 9-14	43	37	20
1952 Feb 28-Mar 5	51	35	14
1951 Aug 3-8	42	48	11
1951 Jun 16-21	43	40	17
1951 Apr 16-21	37	45	18
1951 Mar 26-31	45	43	12
1951 Feb 4-9	49	41	9
1951 Jan 1-5	49	38	13
1950 Aug 20-25	20	65	15
^ Asked of a half sample
AFGHANISTAN WORDING: Do you think the United States made a mistake in sending military forces to Afghanistan, or not?
YUGOSLAVIA WORDING: In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Yugoslavia, do you think the United States made a mistake sending military forces to fight in Yugoslavia?
PERSIAN GULF WAR WORDING (Feb. 28-Mar 3, 1991-Jul. 18-21, 1991): In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to the Persian Gulf region, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to the Persian Gulf region, or not?
PERSIAN GULF WAR WORDING (Aug. 16-19, 1990-Feb. 7-10, 1990): In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Saudi Arabia, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Saudi Arabia, or not?
VIETNAM WAR WORDING (1990-2000): Looking back, do you think the United States made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?
VIETNAM WAR WORDING (1965-1973): In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Vietnam, do you think the U.S. made a mistake sending troops to fight in Vietnam?
KOREAN WAR WORDING (2000): Based on what you have heard or read, do you think the United States made a mistake in going into the war in Korea, or not?
KOREAN WAR WORDING (Feb. 1951-Jan. 1953): Do you think the United States made a mistake in going into the war in Korea, or not?
KOREAN WAR WORDING (Aug. 1950-Jan. 1951): In view of the developments since we entered the fighting in Korea, do you think the United States made a mistake in deciding to defend Korea, or not?

10. In general, how would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq -- [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?

	Very well	Moder- ately well	Moder- ately badly	Very badly	No opinion	Total well	Total badly
	%	%	%	%	%	%	%
2006 Mar 10-12	6	32	32	28	1	38	60

2006 Jan 6-8	8	38	32	21	1	46	53
2005 Oct 21-23	7	35	29	28	1	42	57
2005 Aug 5-7	5	38	28	28	1	43	56
2005 Apr 29-May 1	6	36	31	25	2	42	56
2005 Mar 18-20	8	44	24	21	3	52	45
2005 Feb 4-6	13	40	28	18	1	53	46
2005 Jan 7-9	5	35	29	30	1	40	59
2004 Dec 5-8	6	34	26	33	1	40	59
2004 Sep 24-26	4	42	27	25	2	46	52
2004 Aug 9-11 ^	5	40	28	25	2	45	53
2004 Jul 8-11	5	35	30	29	1	40	59
2004 Jun 3-6	6	34	35	25	*	40	60
2004 May 21-23	7	35	26	31	1	42	57
2004 May 2-4	4	33	32	30	1	37	62
2004 Apr 5-8	5	30	31	33	1	35	64
2004 Mar 5-7	9	46	28	15	2	55	43
2003 Nov 3-5 †	4	34	34	27	1	38	61
2003 Oct 6-8 ^†	6	36	34	24	*	42	56
2003 Sep 8-10 †	6	41	31	21	1	47	52
2003 Aug 25-26 †	6	44	30	19	1	50	49
2003 Jul 25-27 †	10	46	28	15	1	56	43
2003 Jul 18-20 †	6	48	30	15	1	54	45
2003 Jun 27-29 †	5	51	29	13	2	56	42
2003 May 30-Jun 1 †	11	59	22	7	1	70	29
2003 May 5-7 ^†	30	56	10	3	1	86	13
2003 Apr 22-23 ^†	21	64	12	2	1	85	14
* = Less than 0.5%
^ Asked of a half sample
† WORDING: How would you say things are going for the U.S. in Iraq now that the major fighting has ended -- [ROTATED: very well, moderately well, moderately badly, (or) very badly]?

11. Do you think George W. Bush does -- or does not -- have a clear plan for handling the situation in Iraq?