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Who is our Greatest
President?
Forbes.com
Special Report
Presidents And Prosperity
Dan Ackman, 07.20.04, 3:00 PM ET
The death of Ronald Reagan and the popularity of Bill
Clinton's book have sparked an unusually intense interest in
presidents past.
During the week of his funeral, several commentators declared
Reagan the best president of the 20th century, even better than
Franklin D. Roosevelt, whom Reagan himself admired. A recent
Gallup Organization poll indicates that Americans rank John F.
Kennedy slightly ahead of FDR, and both of them ahead of Reagan.
Clinton supporters, meanwhile, note that he turned large federal
deficits into surpluses and presided over a booming economy.
It's the kind of argument that will never be settled, like who
was a better ballplayer, Willie Mays or Mickey Mantle. But we
took a look at the numbers, and for the money, among presidents
since World War II, Clinton scores highest.
Clinton's two terms in office (1993-2001) were marked by
strong numbers for gross domestic product (GDP) and employment
growth and especially for deficit reduction. His overall ranking
puts him first among the ten postwar presidents--ahead of Lyndon
B. Johnson, Kennedy and Reagan, who were tightly grouped behind
the 42nd president and recent autobiographer.
Postwar Presidencies
Ranked By Six Measures Of Economic Performance, Where 1 Is
Best. |
President |
Term |
Years In Office |
GDP Rank |
Real Disposable Personal Income Rank |
Employment Rank |
Unemployment Rank |
Inflation Rank |
Deficit Reduction Rank |
Average Rank |
Bill Clinton |
1993-2001 |
8 |
3 |
5 |
2 |
2 |
6 |
1 |
3.2 |
Lyndon B. Johnson |
November 1963-1969 |
5.1 |
1 |
1 |
5 |
3 |
8 |
4 |
3.7 |
John F. Kennedy |
1961-November 1963 |
2.9 |
2 |
2 |
8 |
1 |
5 |
6 |
4.0 |
Ronald Reagan |
1981-1989 |
8 |
5 |
4 |
3 |
4 |
2 |
8 |
4.3 |
Gerald R. Ford |
August 1974-1977 |
2.4 |
6 |
6 |
6 |
10 |
1 |
2 |
5.2 |
Jimmy Carter |
1977-1981 |
4 |
4 |
8 |
1 |
5 |
10 |
7 |
5.8 |
Harry S. Truman |
April 1945-1953 |
7.8 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
6 |
3 |
3 |
6.2 |
Richard M. Nixon |
1969-August 1974 |
5.6 |
7 |
3 |
4 |
8 |
9 |
9 |
6.7 |
Dwight D. Eisenhower |
1953-1961 |
8 |
8 |
7 |
9 |
9 |
7 |
5 |
7.5 |
George H.W. Bush |
1989-1993 |
4 |
10 |
10 |
10 |
7 |
4 |
10 |
8.5 |
To create our rankings we looked at six measures of economic
performance--GDP growth, per capita income growth, employment
gains, unemployment rate reduction, inflation reduction and
federal deficit reduction--for each of the ten postwar
presidencies. For each measure we looked at whether the situation
improved or got worse, and we ranked the presidents from 1 to 10.
We then averaged the ranks to come up with a final score.
To be sure, there is a sharp debate as to the ability of any
president--or government--to control the economy. But that
doesn't prevent the heads of Wall Street firms such as Merrill
Lynch (nyse: MER - news - people ), Morgan
Stanley (nyse: MWD - news - people ) and
Citigroup (nyse: C - news - people ) from
rooting for one candidate over another based on expectations of
economic performance. Fairly or not, each president was judged by
how much prosperity is delivered on his watch. Some presidents,
it seems, have watched a lot more effectively than others. (We
did not rank the current president, whose term is not yet
over.)
Clinton campaigned on the economy and had remarkable success.
GDP growth during his eight years averaged 3.5% per year, second
only to the combined Kennedy/Johnson years and ahead of Jimmy
Carter and Reagan. The economy also added jobs at a faster rate
under Clinton than under any postwar president except Carter. For
Carter, however, job growth merely matched an increase in the
size of the labor force, while Clinton had much better luck
curbing the unemployment rate as well. The result: The public's
confidence in the economy hit an all-time high in the summer of
2000, near the end of Clinton's second term, according to Gallup.
In the summer of 1992, before he was elected, it was at an
all-time low.
The key to Clinton's success, says Alice Rivlin, a Brookings
Institution scholar who served as his director of management and
budget, was adhering to the "pay/go" agreement first forged by
President George H. W. Bush and a Democratic Congress, whereby
tax cuts or entitlement increases had to be funded on a current
basis. She says Clinton raised taxes at just the right time--when
incomes were starting to rise after years of stagnation--leading
to a surge of receipts. The result was the smallest government in
terms of its percentage of GDP since Johnson, and the first
substantial budget surpluses since Harry S. Truman.
Johnson (1963-1969) ranks second-best overall, slightly ahead
of Kennedy, some of whose economic policies he shepherded through
Congress. LBJ was first in terms of both GDP growth and personal
income growth. He was also among the best in reducing
unemployment, lowering the jobless rate from 5.3% to 3.4%. But
his time in office was also marked by a surge in inflation and
government spending, which got worse under his successor Richard
M. Nixon, who instituted wage and price controls with little
success.
"The Vietnam War had the biggest impact [of any single factor
under Johnson] both for good and for ill," says Charles Schultze,
an economist at the Brookings Institution who worked in the
Johnson and Carter administrations. Schultze says the
Kennedy/Johnson tax cut helped the economy continue to grow in
1965 and 1966. But the failure to finance the war led to a surge
in inflation that continued under Nixon. Despite these problems,
the JFK/LBJ era, viewed as a whole, was the best of times.
Kennedy's presidency (1961-1963), truncated by his November
1963 assassination, ranks third behind LBJ's. Following the
prosperous but slow-growth 1950s, Kennedy, like Clinton,
campaigned on the idea of getting the company moving again. His
most well-known economic legislative initiative, however, his
1964 tax cut, did not take effect until after he was dead.
Without a clear supply- or demand-side explanation for the
boom, Walter Schubert, a finance professor at LaSalle University,
suggests that JFK's impact was largely exhortatory: "My sense of
Kennedy is that he inspired a lot of people to try things." While
many businessmen feared his election, they responded to his
energy. In any event, GDP growth averaged nearly 5% during his
term and he ranks first in reducing the unemployment rate.
Reagan (1981-1989) ranks just after Kennedy, his success
highlighted by his halving of the inflation rate. Veronique de
Rugy, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute,
says the key to Reagan's record was urging spending cuts to
finance tax cuts and an increase in defense spending. "This is
the only instance where we see this type of behavior where we
have a president who understands you can't have it all," she
says. Reagan's first term, marred by a nasty recession, was not
stellar, despite a sharp reduction in inflation caused by U.S.
Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker's dramatic shift in
monetary policy, which started under Carter. Reagan's second
term, though, was very strong.
The Ford and Carter years (1974-1981) are widely recalled as a
time of economic disaster. But by the numbers they were middling,
not awful. Most surprising is that Carter ranks first in job
creation as 10 million jobs were added during his four years in
office, more on an annualized basis than Clinton or Reagan. But
because the labor force was expanding at the same time, led by an
increasing number of women working outside the home, the rate of
unemployment barely budged. Gerald R. Ford ranks first for
controlling inflation, cutting 3.4% off the rate during his brief
two-and-a-half-year term.
The situation got much worse under Carter, in large part
because of the oil embargo imposed by the Organization of the
Petroleum Exporting Countries and resultant price shocks. But
Carter appointed Volcker, whose monetary policies at the Fed
eventually stemmed the inflationary tide.
Of the ten postwar presidents, the first President Bush brings
up the rear. He ranks dead last for both GDP growth and income
growth and also ballooned the deficit at a rate faster than every
president but Ford. His one modest success was continuing the
dramatic drop in inflation that had started under Reagan.
LaSalle's Schubert notes that Bush had "some bad luck," in that
the post-Gulf War recovery was too late and too tepid to aid his
reelection prospects. But Schubert faults Bush for a lack of
perceptible economic policy of any kind, good or bad.
Additional reporting by Mark Hazlin.
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