US economy hits the brakes in fourth
quarter
Yahoo News/AFP
January 27, 2006
WASHINGTON (AFP) - US economic growth slowed dramatically in the last three
months of 2005 to 1.1 percent, from 4.1 percent in the previous quarter, the
government said.
The Commerce Department said that over all of 2005, the gross domestic
product ( GDP) of the world's biggest economy grew by 3.5 percent, down from
4.2 percent in 2004.
Giving its first estimate of GDP growth for the fourth quarter, the
department said the slowdown was due largely to weak auto sales, slower
business investment, a rise in imports and a large drop in federal
spending.
It was the weakest US growth figure in three years and will intensify debate
over whether the Federal Reserve should call a halt to its campaign of interest
rate hikes when it meets on Tuesday.
But the GDP report also showed inflationary pressure building.
The core personal consumption expenditure price index -- a key measure of
inflation watched closely by the Fed -- rose at a 2.2 percent annual rate in
the quarter.
That was above the Fed's informal target range of 1.0 percent to 2.0
percent.
"This is a disappointing release ahead of the Fed meeting, but I don't think
it will derail a rate hike next week. But it does put a question mark on how
far US rates will go up," ECU Group chief economist Neil MacKinnon said.
"There is a whiff of stagflation here that will be disconcerting for
financial investors," he said, referring to the 1970s phenomenon of falling
growth coupled with rising prices.
The dollar slumped on the GDP report, and stock futures headed down. Wall
Street economists expected fourth-quarter growth to come to 2.8 percent.
The report also showed that over 2005, the personal savings rate of
Americans was negative for the first year since 1933.
A spending binge by US consumers on the back of a red-hot property market
has done much to elevate GDP growth in recent years. But the housing sector is
now slowing, creating the fear that consumer spending could be hurt.
In the fourth quarter, consumer spending increased at an annual rate of 1.1
percent, down heavily from 4.1 percent in the third quarter. It was the slowest
spending pace since the last recession in mid-2001.
The fall was largely due to a collapse in auto sales, which alone subtracted
2.1 percentage points from growth. Spending on durable goods such as washing
machines and refrigerators fell 17.5 percent, the biggest drop in 18 years.
The Commerce Department report is only a first estimate, and so is subject
to revisions, with another estimate based on more comprehensive data due out on
February 28.
"This poor performance should be taken cautiously, as the main surprise came
from government consumption, which fell sharply in the fourth quarter due to
specific factors (defence)," IXIS US economist Marie-Pierre Ripert said.
Federal government consumption and gross investment slumped 7.0 percent in
the fourth quarter. National defence spending fell 13.1 percent.
Ripert predicted GDP growth in the first three months of 2006 would show a
rebound to about 3.8 percent, more in line with the US economy's pace in recent
quarters.
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