Hamilton College Hot Button Issues Poll:
Guns, Gays and Abortion
Hamilton College
By Dennis Gilbert
Professor of Sociology, Hamilton College
January 2006
The Hamilton College Hot Button Issues Poll explored the opinions of this
year's high school graduating class on guns, gays and abortion. We selected
high school seniors for this seventh in the Hamilton Youth Poll series as
representatives of a rising generation of Americans and potential voters in
November 2006. One thousand seniors were contacted for the survey, designed by
Hamilton researchers and conducted in collaboration with the polling firm Zogby
International.
The Hamilton Hot Button Issues Poll revealed that members of the high school
class of 2006 are twice as likely as adults to support legal recognition of gay
marriage. Three quarters of this year's graduates favor recognition of same-sex
marriages or civil unions. The poll also found that support for strong handgun
control measures is almost universal among high school seniors. Though liberal
on gay and gun issues, this year's high school graduates are remarkably
conservative on the issues surrounding abortion. We found that most high
school seniors regard abortion as morally wrong and would significantly limit a
woman's right to choose.
ABORTION
The conservatism of the class of 2006 on abortion was the major surprise in
the poll, since previous Hamilton Youth Polls had shown that high school
students are typically liberal on public issues. When they answered our most
general questions on the issue, high school seniors appeared supportive of
abortion rights. Sixty-two percent of seniors told us that they want the
Supreme Court to preserve the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision guaranteeing a woman's
right to abortion. About half described themselves as "pro-choice" and said
they believe that abortion should be legal in "all" or "most" cases. But their
answers to more detailed questions reveal that the great majority of seniors
would significantly restrict access to abortion. For example, two thirds of
high school seniors would require parental permission before a woman under the
age of 18 could legally obtain an abortion.
We asked the seniors whether they thought a woman should have a legal right
to an abortion in the six specific circumstances listed in Table 1 -- all of
them constitutionally protected under current law. We found strong support for
the right to abortion when a pregnancy represented a serious threat to the
woman's health or resulted from rape. But the majority of high school seniors
did not support the right to abortion in any of the other four, fairly common
circumstances. Fewer than one in five seniors recognized the right to abortion
in all six.
Table 1. Support for Right to Abortion
Circumstance
|
Percent Supporting Right to Abortion
|
Pregnancy serious threat to woman's health |
88.9
|
Pregnancy result of rape |
80.9
|
Woman under 18 and unmarried |
49.2
|
Baby will probably have serious birth defect |
48.2
|
Family poor, cannot afford more children |
39.8
|
Woman married, doesn't want more children |
28.5
|
Answers to other questions in the poll suggest that these opinions about the
legal issues surrounding abortion are influenced by strong pro-life sentiments.
Two thirds of the seniors told us they believe abortion is always or usually
"morally wrong." Asked whether a high school senior who becomes pregnant should
keep the baby, give it up for adoption or have an abortion, 26 percent
suggested the first and 54 percent the second alternative. Only 13 percent
proposed abortion. An open-ended question on this same topic in a preliminary
pilot poll elicited similar responses. In rejecting the abortion option, many
students stressed the girl's moral responsibility. "She took the chance of
having sex," noted one. "She made a decision and needs to live with it,"
insisted another. But none of the students referred to her male partner's moral
responsibility. Many high school students are not strangers to this issue. Half
the females and 36 percent of the males polled say they know someone who has
had an abortion. We asked females whether they would "consider" abortion if
they became pregnant in high school and males whether they would want their
partner to do so. The response from 70 percent of females and 67 percent of
males was "No." However, the relatively high proportions of seniors who know
someone who has had an abortion suggests they might themselves be more open to
it if faced with a real decision about their own lives and futures. But being
compelled to consider abortion would obviously be painful for most high school
seniors.
GAY ISSUES In contrast to their views on
abortion, the great majority of the high school class of 2006 holds liberal,
pro-gay opinions. Eighty percent think the law should protect gays against job
discrimination. Regarding the issue that has roiled courts and legislatures in
recent years, three-quarters of seniors support some form of legal recognition
for gay relationships (Table 2). More than half would recognize same-sex
marriages. An additional 20 percent would permit gay couples to form "civil
unions giving them the legal rights of married couples in areas such as
inheritance, health insurance, pension coverage and hospital visiting
privileges." Nearly two-thirds of seniors told us that same-sex couples should
be allowed to adopt children. Support for a constitutional amendment banning
same-sex marriage is predictably thin among high school seniors.
Members of the class of 2006 were similarly pro-gay in their responses to a
series of items designed to measure positive and negative attitudes toward gay
men and lesbians. Almost eighty percent thought gay people should be "accepted
by society." Seventy percent agreed with the statement, "Gay people contribute
in unique and positive ways to society." (See Table 3). Measured by an index
of attitudes toward gays averaging responses to these items, 70 percent of high
school seniors are "pro-gay, " including 22 percent who can be considered "very
pro-gay."
Table 2. Opinion on Gay Issues
|
Percent
|
Support gay marriage Support civil unions Oppose both |
53.6
20.1
24.6
|
Support amendment to constitution banning gay
marriage. |
25.8
|
Support adoption by same sex couples. |
63.0
|
Table 3. Attitudes Toward Gays
Percent Pro-Gay |
|
70.9 |
Gay people contribute in unique and important ways to society |
79.7 |
Lesbian women should be accepted by society. |
77.7 |
Gay men should be accepted by society. |
52.1 |
It would be better if gay people kept their sexual orientation hidden. |
59.6 |
Gay lifestyles are morally wrong (% disagree) |
71.9 |
Lesbians are disgusting (% disagree) |
65.9 |
Gay men are disgusting (% disagree) |
Approximately 20 percent of high school seniors are staunchly anti-gay --
that is, they reject both gay marriage and civil unions and hold negative
attitudes toward gays, as measured by our index. Over 80 percent of anti-gay
seniors believe that "homosexual relations between consenting adults" should be
illegal and regard gay people as "disgusting." Both attitudes are rare among
seniors, outside this anti-gay minority. Many of our respondents thought the
very notion of labeling gays "disgusting" was laughable. Anti-gay seniors are
typically observant and born-again Christians, who view homosexuality as a
moral or religious issue
This poll is the second in the Hamilton Youth Poll series to measure the
attitudes of high school seniors toward gays and gay issues. The more detailed
Hamilton Gay Issues Poll was conducted in 2001. Comparison of the two polls
does not suggest significant changes in attitudes.
Table 4. Handgun Control Measures
Percent favoring measure |
|
53.4 |
Make laws governing the sale of firearms stricter |
88.4 |
Require 5-day waiting period between purchase and delivery of handguns |
95.7 |
Register all handguns at time of purchase |
63.4 |
Raise age for legal purchase of handgun from 18 to 21. |
30.9 |
Ban handguns possession except by police and other authorized
personnel. |
Our poll found that many high school seniors had direct or indirect
experience with firearms. About half indicated that they had fired a gun. A
disturbingly high proportion, 35 percent, told us that they knew of someone at
their school who had been shot at or threatened with a gun. Surprisingly,
neither condition had much influence on opinion about gun control. Those who
had fired a gun were less supportive of the general notion of stricter gun
control but, like others polled, overwhelmingly favored the key registration
and waiting period measures. Those who reported threats or shootings at their
school were statistically indistinguishable from their classmates.
A previous Hamilton survey, the Youth and Guns Poll conducted in 2000, took
a more detailed look at high school students' experiences with guns and their
opinions about gun control. The earlier study also found near universal support
for the most commonly proposed control measures, including several not included
in the current poll. Although the majority favoring stricter gun laws in their
response to the generic question was about 10 percent higher in the first
study, the percentages supporting the registration and waiting period measures
were almost exactly the same. Because the Youth and Guns Poll surveyed high
school sophomores and juniors in addition to seniors, the two studies are not
strictly compatible.
GENDER, RACE, CHURCH, AND OTHER VARIATIONS
This section uses the three questions below to gauge demographic variation
among high school seniors on the issues explored in our poll.
Abortion --Do you think abortion should be legal in all
cases, legal in most cases, illegal in most cases, or illegal in all
cases?
Gay Rights -- Would you support or oppose a law that would
allow same sex couples to get married?
Gun Control -- In general, do you feel that laws covering
the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict or kept as they
are now?
The responses of seniors in various demographic subgroups to these questions
are compared in Table 5. The abortion column gives the percentage of seniors in
each subgroup who think abortion should be legal in all or most cases; the gay
rights column, the percentage who would support gay marriage and the gun
control column, the percentage who feel gun laws should be more strict . (For
the distribution of seniors across demographic categories see the)
As the table suggests, gender and race are generally weak predictors of
student opinion on these three issues. It is, however, worth noting that males
(especially white males) are more conservative on gun control, and blacks are
significantly less supportive of gay marriage than whites or Hispanics
The table shows that religion and reported church attendance are powerful
influences on abortion and gay marriage opinions. Among high school seniors,
born-again Christians and those who attend services four or more times a month
are notably more conservative on these two issues. The nation's Catholic
bishops will not be pleased to learn that this cohort of young Catholics is
about average among their peers on the abortion issue. But they may find some
consolation in the wide gap separating two groups of Catholic students: the
typically pro-life seniors who attend mass regularly and those who
don't.3 As in previous Hamilton Youth Polls, in the current poll,
the South and Central regions appear more conservative. But the distinctly
conservative tilt of Southern students evident in the table, especially on the
gay marriage issue, reflects the high proportion of born-again Christians in
the region. Thirty-seven percent of our Southern respondents described
themselves as born again. Without them, 59 percent of Southerners would
recognize abortion rights in all/most cases and 54 percent would support gay
marriage
The political geography of opinion on our three issues was mapped by
dividing the Class of 2006 into residents of Blue, Gray and Red states. Blue
states are those in which the Democratic presidential candidate received more
than 55 percent of the major party vote in 2004. Red states are the
corresponding Republican strongholds. The more closely contested Gray states
will presumably decide future elections. The cleavages separating Blue and Red
state seniors on these three issues parallel the gaps between Democrats and
Republicans shown at the end of the table. More interesting are the opinions of
the 40 percent of high school seniors who live in the 19 Gray states.
Republican leaders will be pleased to learn that these seniors are closest to
their peers in the Republican-oriented Red states on all three issues
Table 5. Demographic Differences
|
Abortion
Rights
|
Gay
Marriage
|
Gun
Control
|
ALL
Males
Females
|
53
54
52
|
54
49
58
|
54
46
61
|
White
Black
Hispanic
|
51
57
52
|
54
39
61
|
48
71
72
|
Born Again
Other Protestant
Catholic
Other Religion
No Religion
|
32
52
51
70
80
|
30
46
59
60
88
|
44
54
55
65
61
|
Attends Church
0 - 3x / mo.
Over 3x / mo.
|
68
38
|
71
36
|
55
52
|
Northeast
South
Central
West
|
61
48
48
58
|
63
43
53
58
|
58
55
46
59
|
Blue State
Gray State
Red State
|
65
50
44
|
65
50
47
|
62
49
52
|
Democrat
Republican
Other/Not Sure |
71
54
30 |
68
56
34 |
65
53
40 |
COMPARISONS WITH ADULTS Comparisons between
our survey and recent adult polls indicate that the high school class of 2006
is conservative on abortion and liberal on gun control like older Americans,
but far more liberal than adults on gay issues
National polls conducted by media organizations and university researchers
reveal that about 50 percent of adults would describe themselves as
"pro-choice" and more than 60 percent say they would not want to see the Roe v.
Wade decision overturned. But the majority also regards abortion as morally
wrong and would not concede a woman's legal right to abortion except in extreme
circumstances, such as rape or significant threat to the health of the mother.
This is precisely the inconsistent, conservative leaning pattern we have found
in the Class of 2006.4 With respect to gun control, more than 50
percent of American adults, responding to the same generic question used in our
poll, say gun control laws should be stricter. Support for specific gun control
measures is substantially higher. 5 Again the pattern is similar to
what we found among current high school seniors.6
Because of the intense current political interest in the issue, there has
been extensive polling on gay marriage in 2005. Several surveys conducted this
year, employing language similar to our own, found that support for legal
recognition of gay marriage was limited to 20 to 27 percent of adults. The
higher figure is half what we recorded among high school seniors. On the other
hand, adult support for a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage ranges
from 45 to 54 percent in recent polls, compared to 26 percent of high school
seniors.7
CONDUCTING THE HAMILTON HOT BUTTON ISSUES
POLL The Hamilton College Hot Button Issues Poll is the seventh in a
series of national youth surveys conducted by Hamilton faculty and students.
These studies are intended to take advantage of the academic expertise of
faculty and the life experience of Hamilton students. Most funding for these
surveys is provided by Hamilton's Arthur Levitt Public Affairs Center, which
paid all costs for the survey analyzed here
The Hot Button Issues Poll was
designed and analyzed by Hamilton Sociology Professor Dennis Gilbert and the
Hamilton students whose names are listed on the inside cover page of this
report. The sampling and calling were administered by the polling firm Zogby
International and done in two phases. The first was a 100-call pilot survey,
conducted in October 2005. Calls for this phase were made by the Hamilton
student researchers at Zogby International facilities. On the basis of the
results from the pilot study, the questionnaire was rewritten by the Hamilton
team. The redesigned questionnaire was administered to a national sample of
1,000 high school seniors in calls made from November 10 to 20, 2005, by Zogby
International.
In theory, a random sample of 1,000 is accurate within plus or minus 3
percentage points. However, obtaining a random national sample of high school
seniors is more difficult than drawing a national sample of adults or
households. The demographics of the second stage data suggest that a
trustworthy national sample was obtained. For the analysis presented here, the
sample was reweighted for sex and region. Because the original sample was
reasonably representative, these adjustments had little effect on the results.
Non-sampling problems, such as unintended ambiguities in questionnaire language
and less than candid responses, can also affect survey accuracy.
Footnotes: [1] In the current poll,
high school seniors are equally likely to agree that "homosexual relations"
should be legal; slightly more likely to favor protection for gays against job
discrimination; and slightly less likely to accept adoption by same-sex
couples. They are eight percent less supportive of gay marriage, but
differences in the question used make this comparison problematic. The 2001
survey did not ask about civil unions
[2] Taken by themselves, these questions
are, in an absolute sense, problematic measures of opinion, but they are useful
here for the purpose of comparing population groups. [3] Sixty-two percent of those who attend services fewer than
4 times a month, but only 41 percent of those who attend more frequently,
agreed that abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances. The two
groups are respectively 55 and 45 percent of the Catholic students polled
[4]The adult surveys were conducted
by Gallup, Gallup for CNN/USA Today, Fox News, Time/CNN, CBS,
and Pew, from 2003 to 2005.
[5]Adult polling on gun control was
done by Gallup, CBS, Harris, and the National Opinion Research Center at the
University of Chicago (General Social Survey) from 2003 to 2005.
[6] Comparisons between the 2000
Hamilton Guns and Youth Poll and adult polls conducted about the same time,
suggested that the high school students were somewhat more liberal than adults
on gun issues. Neither our own data from the current poll nor the currently
available adult statistics permit precise comparison today.
[7]The marriage and amendment
comparisons were with adult polls conducted in 2005 by ABC/Washington
Post, CBS/The New York Times and Gallup for CNN/USA
Today, and the Boston Globe
|