Powell supports war because of forces on ground
New York Times
By STEVEN R. WEISMAN
March 13, 2003
WASHINGTON, March 13 — On one side, the United States' most important allies, as well as the nations whose votes are needed on Iraq, are pleading with Secretary of State Colin L. Powell for just another month or two for inspections to proceed so that a war can be waged with international backing.
On the other, American military forces are reaching a decisive phase in the Persian Gulf, and Mr. Powell — who was chairman of the Joint Chiefs in the last Persian Gulf war, in 1991 — understands better than most that these troops cannot wait a couple of more months without losing some of their fighting edge.
With the Bush administration's diplomatic efforts on Iraq seemingly on the verge of collapse, this is an excruciating moment for Mr. Powell, another turning point in his evolution from skeptic to advocate of a war to overthrow Saddam Hussein.
Shortly after the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, Mr. Powell told friends that he would not be stampeded by the administration's hawks into a war against Iraq, and certainly not a war that did not have international support.
Now after months of diplomacy and inconclusive inspections in Iraq, aides say Mr. Powell is prepared to call for a cutoff in negotiations over a United Nations Security Council resolution, not simply because he understands the danger of troops sitting in the desert but also because he has lost patience with both Iraq and the French.
The hangup at the Security Council is over whether the inspections should be allowed to continue into the late spring or summer. Administration officials concede that if they let the process go on for that long, a solid majority of votes might well be lined up in the Council.
"But we don't have that much time," a State Department official said. "It's not because warmongers are ready to march. It's because it would be self-defeating to let Iraq off the hook by even two or three weeks, when you know they will just squirm out of their obligations again."
While Mr. Powell may be convinced now that war is the best option, he is nevertheless furious, associates say, at Defense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld, whom he blames in private for making diplomacy difficult by hurling insults at France and Germany, whose good will he has been trying to win. Mr. Rumsfeld's recent comments that the war could be waged without Britain, though retracted, were another blow, in the secretary's view.
"Diplomacy is slipping away, and Rumsfeld needs some duct tape put over his mouth, but Powell is not coming unglued," a friend of the secretary said. "He's comfortable with the policy of using force as a last resort."
Mr. Powell indicated as much at a Congressional hearing today, when he said there might never be a vote on a second United Nations resolution authorizing war against Iraq.
In addition to accepting the possibility of a war, he was making public a point of view he had argued in private, according to administration officials, to the effect that not having a vote was preferable to losing one, perhaps by a lopsided vote.
"The options remain: go for a vote and see what members say, or not go for a vote," Mr. Powell told a House Appropriations subcommittee.
President Bush said last week that there should be a vote, but Mr. Powell has worried that the credibility of the United Nations, and perhaps his own prestige as a diplomat, would be severely hurt by a defeat.
Aides to Mr. Powell say his transformation from a cautious, largely antiwar figure to a hawk has been brought about by Iraqi behavior, not by any change on the part of the secretary himself.
But the perception among diplomats that the Bush administration has determined that the war must be fought in the spring of 2003 is embittering the allies. They charge that Mr. Powell has given up fighting Vice President Dick Cheney, Mr. Rumsfeld and others who favored going to war against Iraq from the first days after the Sept. 11 attacks.
A senior European diplomat said he was convinced that the choice of starting a war this spring was made for political as well as military reasons. Mr. Bush, this diplomat said, clearly does not want to have a war raging on the eve of his presumed re-election campaign.
Mr. Powell has said all along that American troops could fight in any weather. But everyone involved in the discussions knows that fighting in the desert heat increases the difficulties and presents risks that no president would want to accept.
Others say that for American troops to wait for weeks or months in the desert will sap their morale and dull their readiness.
But these arguments have only infuriated diplomats at Security Council.
"If the United States wants to proceed on this unilateral military timetable, they should fight this war alone," said a diplomat from a nation that has not decided how to vote in the Council, but who favors a delay of 45 days before cutting off the inspections.
"You can't convince the French or the Russians that the temperature is too high in the desert to fight after April 15," he added.
But many experts say Mr. Bush would be derelict not to order the war now.
"The French are just not credible on this," said Senator Richard G. Lugar, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee. "It's all well and good for the French to say that our troops should sit out there in the desert for a while, and what's the hurry? There aren't 200,000 French troops out there."
"It would be almost a form of physical torture to make our forces stay there and fight in the summer," Mr. Lugar continued. "Ultimately the president is not going to stand for that. Neither would I. When the French are willing to put some of their own troops on the line, then maybe we might listen to them."
Mr. Powell has gone through many phases on Iraq. According to an aide, discussions in the administration in early 2001 centered on three things.
The first was to fix the sanctions so that they did not leak, a task given to Mr. Powell. The second was to tighten the no-flight zone over Iraq, a task given to the Pentagon. The third was to think about the possibilities of "regime change," a task given to the intelligence services.
After Sept. 11, Mr. Powell has told associates, there were meetings with Mr. Bush in which it was decided that Afghanistan and Al Qaeda would be tackled first, after which Iraq would have to be dealt with as another potential mortal threat.
An aide said that when Mr. Cheney, Mr. Rumsfeld and others began pushing for Mr. Hussein's overthrow, Mr. Powell's attitude was, "Fine, but show me a plan that works." He argued that a military action without international support might backfire and inflame the Middle East, and that there was no realistic plan for who would run the country after it was conquered.
Once Mr. Bush decided to go to war, he also decided to get United Nations support, a task handed to Mr. Powell — and, to the embitterment of his supporters, to him alone. A friend said the secretary felt that his pursuit of a diplomatic resolution was constantly undercut by hawks in the administration.
Asked what it's like for the secretary to find himself in constant battle with others in the administration who want to pull the plug on diplomacy, an aide said, "The important thing is that the president has given his approval for more time."
But he acknowledged that with troops sitting in the desert and ready to fight, time has all but run out.
Copyright 2003 The New York Times Company
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