Majority opposes unilateral Iraq war
Miami Herald
Posted on Sun, Jan. 12, 2003
BY MARTIN MERZER
mmerzer@herald.com
With U.S. troops mustering in the Persian Gulf and the nation on the cusp of war with Iraq, Americans in overwhelming numbers oppose unilateral U.S. military action, a national poll conducted last week for Knight Ridder newspapers found.
Many survey respondents said President Bush has not effectively explained why military action might be required. Nearly one in five said they still do not believe that Iraq poses a serious threat to the United States.
A robust majority of Americans --83 percent -- would support going to war if the United Nations backed the action. But support for war dwindles rapidly without U.N. approval.
Fewer than half of the respondents said they would support an attack on Iraq if the United States were joined by only one or two key allies. And 59 percent said they would be opposed to an attack if the United States decided to go it alone -- a switch that presents the Bush administration with a political and diplomatic quandary.
Unambiguous evidence that Iraq has nuclear, biological or chemical weapons is a key requirement for the broad international support that Americans crave. Yet a majority of poll respondents, while convinced that Iraq harbors such weapons, said they doubt that U.N. inspectors will find them.
''We have been given no compelling reasons for going to war,'' said Bill Quarton, 52, of Ann Arbor, Mich., who was among the poll respondents who said they were opposed to unilateral U.S. action against Iraq.
``Our government acts as if it knows something terribly important and we should go ahead with this, but we haven't seen anything to substantiate it. The whole scenario makes me very uncomfortable.''
The survey by Princeton Survey Research Associates questioned 1,204 American adults between Jan. 3 and Jan. 6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Among the survey's other findings:
- Most Americans do not want to rush into war. Sixty-eight percent of the respondents said the United States should continue to work toward achieving its goals in Iraq without war. Only 27 percent favored quick military action.
- Still, more than 60 percent of those surveyed said they would support an eventual war if it were the only way to topple Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein or end the threat of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction.
- In fact, the arguments against war are much less compelling to Americans than the arguments in favor of military action. In particular, the arguments that war with Iraq will hurt the economy, damage relations with our allies, or divert attention and resources from the goal of tracking down those responsible for the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, don't carry much weight.
- Two-thirds of the respondents said they believed that they had a good grasp of the issues surrounding the Iraqi crisis, but closer questioning revealed large gaps in that knowledge. For instance, exactly half of those surveyed said that one or more of the terrorist hijackers were Iraqi citizens. In fact, none was.
- The informed public is considerably less hawkish about war with Iraq than the public as a whole. Those who show themselves to be most knowledgeable about the situation are significantly less likely to support taking military action against Iraq, either to remove Hussein from power or to disarm that nation.
- Asked to rank the various threats facing the United States, more than twice as many respondents (49 percent of the total) chose al Qaeda rather than Iraq as the greatest peril. By a similar margin, respondents believe that dealing with al Qaeda should be the nation's top foreign policy priority.
BUSH'S ARGUMENTS
His clarity is questioned
by more people than before
With war possibly only weeks away and another crisis brewing with North Korea, the survey found that Americans exhibit considerable uncertainty and ambivalence about world affairs.
Among other things, they are evenly divided about the president's effectiveness in explaining what's at stake in Iraq and why U.S. military force might be employed.
Forty-eight percent of those surveyed said he has not clearly explained his rationale for another war against Iraq; 46 percent believe that he has.
The result shows some slippage for the president since September, when other polls asked a similar question. Then, 52 percent believed that the president had clearly explained his position; 37 percent disagreed.
''He's the best,'' said Jose Velez, 25, of Lehighton, Pa., near Allentown. ``After Sept. 11, President Bush didn't take any chances, and this is part of that.''
Dan Yeager, 24, of Grand Ledge, Mich., saw it differently.
''I think going after Iraq is just for Bush's own popularity and to finish off his father's work,'' Yeager said. 'He's not clear about why he wants to go to war. I think he just wants to do it and he's just saying, `Back me.' ''
Yeager and many other Americans also worry about the economy. As a group, respondents were evenly split on whether foreign threats or the economy should be the administration's top priority.
''We're going to spend a lot of money sending all these troops to Iraq, and right now we have a problem of our own with the economy,'' said Lydia Sepulveda, 41, of Weston. ``A lot of people are without work.''
Still, the 27 percent who consider Iraq the most important priority of U.S. foreign policy are more likely than others to want the White House to devote most of its time to an overseas crisis rather than the economy. Fifty-two percent of those people feel that way.
Only 42 percent of those who believe that al Qaeda or North Korea poses the most serious foreign threat want the White House to prioritize those issues over the economy.
When it comes to North Korea, a majority believe that the United States is imperiled by that enigmatic, hard-line regime and that the United States should maintain or enhance its military presence in South Korea.
But there is little support for U.S. military action against North Korea, a nation that American officials say probably has nuclear weapons.
Seventy-nine percent of those surveyed said the issue should be resolved diplomatically; only 15 percent said the United States should prepare to take immediate military action against North Korea.
''I'm a war veteran and I don't believe in going to war over other people's problems,'' said Robert Wilkinson, 75, of Ojai, Calif., near Ventura. He is a veteran of World War II.
Returning to the Iraqi crisis, a commanding 91 percent of those surveyed believe that Hussein is concealing nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. Sixty-five percent believe that U.N. inspectors are not likely to find those weapons.
If war proves necessary, Americans seem willing to tolerate a long military presence in Iraq. Sixty-six percent of those surveyed said they would support eventual military action even if it required U.S. troops to remain in Iraq for five years.
The survey also demonstrated that many Americans remain altruistic and idealistic. They worry that the Iraqi crisis could mark a fundamental shift in American attitudes toward war.
Two-thirds of the respondents said that Hussein's record of using chemical or biological weapons against his own people provided a good reason for going to war -- the same number that cited American self-defense against a terrorist attack.
Forty-six percent of those surveyed said the possibility of a high casualty rate among Iraqi civilians was a good reason not to go to war.
At the same time, the nation is evenly divided over the Bush administration's advocacy of preemptive strikes -- those launched before an enemy attacks American interests at home or abroad. Forty-three percent said the policy violates American ideals and could establish a dangerous precedent.
''We should be the country that sets the standards,'' Quarton said. ``This amounts to punishing the criminal before the crime is committed.''
Forty-five percent support preemptive strikes.
''If somebody says he's going to kill me, am I going to wait until he does?'' Velez said. ``There have been a lot of threats. How many people have to die over here before we do what we have to do?''
A POLITICAL DIVIDE
Support for president's view
greater among Republicans
As one might expect, support for war among Democrats and independents is much more conditional than support among Republicans.
While Republicans widely endorse the policy of preemptive strikes and would support war with Iraq with less than the full backing of U.S. allies, Democrats and independents tend to see preemptive strikes as bad policy and make their support for war contingent on a U.N. resolution.
Many Americans are willing to support the use of nuclear weapons, if necessary, but an equal number remain discomforted by that concept.
Forty-six percent would approve of a U.S. nuclear response if Iraq used chemical or biological weapons; 45 percent would not want a U.S. response with nuclear bombs.
Asked whether Israel would be justified in responding with nuclear devices to an Iraqi chemical or biological attack, Americans felt quite differently. Sixty percent said Israel would be justified; 30 percent disagreed.
''It would be a grave error,'' Quarton said. ``Two wrongs do not make a right. It would poison a large part of the world. It would create hatreds that might take centuries to resolve.''
The survey also suggested shaky factual underpinnings in many of the nation's opinions.
Nearly one in four respondents believe the Bush administration has publicly released evidence tying Iraq to the planning and funding of the Sept. 11 attacks, and more than one in three respondents did not know or declined to answer.
No such evidence has been released.
Copyright © 2003, Knight Ridder Inc.
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