For Bush, Facts Are
Malleable
globalexchange.org/Washington
Post
by Dana Milbank
Tuesday, October 22, 2002
President Bush, speaking to the nation this month about the
need to challenge Saddam Hussein, warned that Iraq has a growing
fleet of unmanned aircraft that could be used "for missions
targeting the United States." Last month, asked if there were new
and conclusive evidence of Hussein's nuclear weapons
capabilities, Bush cited a report by the International Atomic
Energy Agency saying the Iraqis were "six months away from
developing a weapon." And last week, the president said
objections by a labor union to having customs officials wear
radiation detectors has the potential to delay the policy "for a
long period of time."
All three assertions were powerful arguments for the actions
Bush sought. And all three statements were dubious, if not wrong.
Further information revealed that the aircraft lack the range to
reach the United States; there was no such report by the IAEA;
and the customs dispute over the detectors was resolved long
ago.
As Bush leads the nation toward a confrontation with Iraq and
his party into battle in midterm elections, his rhetoric has
taken some flights of fancy in recent weeks. Statements on
subjects ranging from the economy to Iraq suggest that a
president who won election underscoring Al Gore's knack for
distortions and exaggerations has been guilty of a few
himself.
Presidential embroidery is, of course, a hoary tradition.
Ronald Reagan was known for his apocryphal story about liberating
a concentration camp. Bill Clinton fibbed famously and under oath
about his personal indiscretions to keep a step ahead of
Whitewater prosecutors. Richard M. Nixon had his Watergate
denials, and Lyndon B. Johnson was often accused of stretching
the truth to put the best face on the Vietnam War. Presidents
Dwight D. Eisenhower and John F. Kennedy, too, played with the
truth during the Gary Powers and Bay of Pigs episodes.
"Everybody makes mistakes when they open their mouths and we
forgive them," Brookings Institution scholar Stephen Hess said.
Some of Bush's overstatements appear to be off-the-cuff mistakes.
But, Hess said, "what worries me about some of these is they
appear to be with foresight. This is about public policy in its
grandest sense, about potential wars and who is our enemy, and a
president has a special obligation to getting it right."
The White House, while acknowledging that on one occasion the
president was "imprecise," said it stands by his words. "The
president's statements are well documented and supported by the
facts," Bush press secretary Ari Fleischer said. "We reject any
allegation to the contrary."
In stop after stop across the country, Bush has cited an
impressive statistic in his bid to get Congress to approve
terrorism insurance legislation. "There's over $15 billion of
construction projects which are on hold, which aren't going
forward -- which means there's over 300,000 jobs that would be in
place, or soon to be in place, that aren't in place," is how he
put it last week in Michigan.
But these are not government estimates. The $15 billion figure
comes from the Real Estate Roundtable, a trade group that is
leading the fight for the legislation and whose members have much
to gain. After pleas earlier this year from the White House for
"hard evidence" to make its case for terrorism insurance, the
roundtable got the information from an unscientific survey of
members, who were asked to provide figures with no
documentation.
The 300,000 jobs number, the White House said, was supplied by
the carpenters' union. But a union official said the White House
apparently "extrapolated" the number from a Transportation
Department study of federal highway aid -- not private real
estate -- that the union had previously cited.
The president has also taken some liberties as he argues for
his version of homeland security legislation. He often suggests
in stump speeches that the union covering customs workers is
blocking the wearing of radiation detectors. "The leadership of
that particular group of people said, 'No way; we need to have a
collective bargaining session over whether or not our people
should be made to wear these devices,' " he said in Michigan last
week. "And that could take a long period of time."
The National Treasury Employees Union did indeed argue in
January that the radiation devices should be voluntary, and it
called for negotiations. But five days later, the Customs Service
said it saw no need to negotiate and would begin to implement the
policy, which it did. After a subsequent exchange between the
union president and Customs Service commissioner, the union wrote
in April that it "does not object" to mandatory wearing of the
devices.
The Customs Service said the delay had less to do with the
dispute than the fact that customs lacks enough devices (about
4,000 are on order). The White House and Customs Service said the
dispute was settled in part because Bush had the authority to
waive collective bargaining, although he did not exercise it.
On Sept. 7, meeting with British Prime Minister Tony Blair at
Camp David, Bush told reporters: "I would remind you that when
the inspectors first went into Iraq and were denied, finally
denied access, a report came out of the Atomic -- the IAEA --
that they were six months away from developing a weapon. I don't
know what more evidence we need."
The IAEA did issue a report in 1998, around the time weapons
inspectors were denied access to Iraq for the final time, but the
report made no such assertion. It declared: "Based on all
credible information to date, the IAEA has found no indication of
Iraq having achieved its program goal of producing nuclear
weapons or of Iraq having retained a physical capability for the
production of weapon-usable nuclear material or having
clandestinely obtained such material." The report said Iraq had
been six to 24 months away from nuclear capability before the
1991 Gulf War.
The White House said that Bush "was imprecise on this" and
that the source was U.S. intelligence, not the IAEA.
In the president's Oct. 7 speech to the nation from
Cincinnati, he introduced several rationales for taking action
against Iraq. Describing contacts between al Qaeda and Iraq, Bush
cited "one very senior al Qaeda leader who received medical
treatment in Baghdad this year." He asserted that "we have
discovered through intelligence that Iraq has a growing fleet" of
unmanned aircraft and expressed worry about them "targeting the
United States."
Bush also stated that in 1998, "information from a
high-ranking Iraqi nuclear engineer who had defected revealed
that despite his public promises, Saddam Hussein had ordered his
nuclear program to continue." He added, "Iraq could decide on any
given day to provide a biological or chemical weapon to a
terrorist group or individual terrorists," an alliance that
"could allow the Iraqi regime to attack America without leaving
any fingerprints."
In each of these charges, Bush omitted qualifiers that make
the accusations seem less convincing. In the case of the al Qaeda
leader receiving medical treatment, U.S. intelligence officials
acknowledged that the terrorist, Abu Musab Zarqawi, was no longer
in Iraq and that there was no hard evidence Hussein's government
knew he was there or had contact with him. On the matter of the
aircraft, a CIA report this month suggested that the fleet was
more of an "experiment" and "attempt" and labeled it a "serious
threat to Iraq's neighbors and to international military forces
in the region" -- but said nothing about it having sufficient
range to threaten the United States.
Bush's statement about the Iraqi nuclear defector, implying
such information was current in 1998, was a reference to Khidhir
Hamza. But Hamza, though he spoke publicly about his information
in 1998, retired from Iraq's nuclear program in 1991, fled to the
Iraqi north in 1994 and left the country in 1995. Finally, Bush's
statement that Iraq could attack "on any given day" with
terrorist groups was at odds with congressional testimony by the
CIA. The testimony, declassified after Bush's speech, rated the
possibility as "low" that Hussein would initiate a chemical or
biological weapons attack against the United States but might
take the "extreme step" of assisting terrorists if provoked by a
U.S. attack.
White House spokesmen said in response that it was
"unrealistic" to assume Iraqi authorities did not know of
Zarqawi's presence and that Iraq's unmanned aircraft could be
launched from ships or trucks outside Iraq.
Some of the disputed Bush assertions are matters of
perspective.
Bush often says, as he did Friday in Missouri, that "because
of a quirk in the rules in the United States Senate, after a
10-year period, the tax-relief plan we passed goes away." There
is a Senate rule that required a 60-vote majority for the tax
cut, but the decision to let the cuts expire was based on
pragmatic considerations. Proponents of the cut from the House
and Senate -- both under GOP control at the time -- decided to
have the tax cut expire after nine years to keep its price tag
within the $1.35 trillion over 10 years that had been agreed
between lawmakers and Bush.
Other times, the president's assertions simply outpace the
facts. In New Hampshire earlier this month, he
said his education legislation made "the biggest increase in
education spending in a long, long time."
In fact, the 15.8 percent increase in
Department of Education discretionary spending for fiscal year
2002 (the figures the White House supplied when asked about
Bush's statement) was below the 18.5 percent increase under
Clinton the previous year -- and Bush had wanted a much smaller
increase than Congress approved. Earlier this month,
Republican moderates complained to Bush's budget director,
Mitchell E. Daniels Jr., that the administration was not spending
the full amount for education that Congress approved. Daniels
said it was "nothing uncommon" and decried the "explosively
larger education bill."
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