War With Iraq
Further Divides Global Publics
The Pew Research Center
Released: June 3, 2003
The speed of the war in Iraq and the prevailing belief that
the Iraqi people are better off as a result have modestly
improved the image of America. But in most countries, opinions of
the U.S. are markedly lower than they were a year ago. The war
has widened the rift between Americans and Western Europeans,
further inflamed the Muslim world, softened support for the war
on terrorism, and significantly weakened global public support
for the pillars of the post-World War II era – the U.N. and
the North Atlantic alliance.
These are the principal findings from the latest survey of the
Pew Global Attitudes Project, conducted over the past month in 20
countries and the Palestinian Authority. It is being released
together with a broader survey of 44 nations conducted in 2002,
which covers attitudes on globalization, democratization and the
role of Islam in governance and society.
While the postwar poll paints a mostly negative picture of the
image of America, its people and policies, the broader Pew Global
Attitudes survey shows wide support for the fundamental economic
and political values that the U.S. has long promoted.
Globalization, the free market model and democratic ideals are
accepted in all corners of the world. Most notably, the 44-nation
survey found strong democratic aspirations in most of the Muslim
publics surveyed. The postwar update confirms that these
aspirations remain intact despite the war and its attendant
controversies.
The new survey shows, however, that public confidence in the
United Nations is a major victim of the conflict in Iraq.
Positive ratings for the world body have tumbled in nearly every
country for which benchmark measures are available. Majorities or
pluralities in most countries believe that the war in Iraq showed
the U.N. to be not so important any more. The idea that the U.N.
is less relevant is much more prevalent now than it was just
before the war, and is shared by people in countries that backed
the war, the U.S. and Great Britain, as well as in nations that
opposed it, notably France and Germany.
In addition, majorities in five of seven NATO countries
surveyed support a more independent relationship with the U.S. on
diplomatic and security affairs. Fully three-quarters in France
(76%), and solid majorities in Turkey (62%), Spain (62%), Italy
(61%) and Germany (57%) believe Western Europe should take a more
independent approach than it has in the past. ?
The British and Americans disagree – narrow majorities
in both countries want the partnership between the U.S. and
Western Europe to remain as close as ever. But the percentage of
Americans favoring continued close ties with Western Europe has
fallen – from 62% before the war to 53% in the current
survey. In fact, the American people have cooled on France and
Germany as much as the French and Germans have cooled on the
U.S.
In Western Europe, negative views of America have declined
somewhat since just prior to the war in Iraq, when anti-war
sentiment peaked. But since last summer, favorable opinions of
the U.S have slipped in nearly every country for which trend
measures are available. Views of the American people, while still
largely favorable, have fallen as well. The belief that the U.S.
pursues a unilateralist foreign policy, which had been extensive
last summer, has only grown in the war's aftermath.
In Great Britain and Italy, positive opinions of the U.S.
increased considerably since just before the war (see page 19).
Of the 21 publics surveyed in the new poll, overall support for
the United States is greatest by far in Israel, where 79% view
the U.S. favorably. Israelis also express near-universal support
for the U.S.-led war on terrorism, with 85% favoring the fight
against terrorism. Majorities in Western Europe and Australia
also back the war on terrorism, but support has slipped since
last summer in both France and Germany (15 points in France, 10
points in Germany).
In addition, the bottom has fallen out of support for America
in most of the Muslim world. Negative views of the U.S. among
Muslims, which had been largely limited to countries in the
Middle East, have spread to Muslim populations in Indonesia and
Nigeria. Since last summer, favorable ratings for the U.S. have
fallen from 61% to 15% in Indonesia and from 71% to 38% among
Muslims in Nigeria.
In the wake of the war, a growing percentage of Muslims see
serious threats to Islam. Specifically, majorities in seven of
eight Muslim populations surveyed express worries that the U.S.
might become a military threat to their countries. Even in
Kuwait, where people have a generally favorable view of the
United States, 53% voice at least some concern that the U.S.
could someday pose a threat.
Support for the U.S.-led war on terrorism also has fallen in
most Muslim publics. Equally significant, solid majorities in the
Palestinian Authority, Indonesia and Jordan – and nearly
half of those in Morocco and Pakistan – say they have at
least some confidence in Osama bin Laden to "do the right thing
regarding world affairs." Fully 71% of Palestinians say they have
confidence in bin Laden in this regard.
More generally, the postwar update survey of 16,000
respondents finds, in most countries that are friendly to the
United States, only modest percentages have confidence that
President Bush will do the right thing in international affairs.
People in most countries rate Vladimir Putin, Gerhard Schroeder,
Jacques Chirac and Tony Blair more highly than they do Bush. The
president also ranks slightly behind Blair in the United States,
mostly due to political partisanship. Nearly all Republicans
(95%) express confidence in Bush, compared with 64% of
Democrats.
War Views Entrenched
The war itself did little to change opinions about the merits
of using force in Iraq. In countries where there was strong
opposition to the war, people overwhelmingly believe their
governments made the right decision to stay out of the conflict.
In countries that backed the war, with the notable exception of
Spain, publics believe their governments made the right decision.
In Great Britain, support for the war has grown following its
successful outcome. A majority of Turks oppose even the limited
help their government offered the U.S. during the war, while
Kuwaitis largely approve of their government's support for the
military effort.
Opinion about the war is strongly related to perceptions of
how the U.S. and its allies conducted the war and are managing
its aftermath. In countries opposed to the war, there is a
widespread belief the coalition did not try hard enough to avoid
civilian casualties. By contrast, solid majorities in most of the
coalition countries, as well as Israel, believe the U.S. and its
allies did make a serious attempt to spare civilians.
Eight-in-ten Americans (82%) feel that way, the highest
percentage of any population surveyed.
A somewhat different pattern is apparent in attitudes toward
the postwar reconstruction of Iraq. Americans generally believe
the allies are taking the needs of the Iraqi people into account.
But there is less support for that point of view elsewhere, even
in Great Britain, Australia and Israel. Muslim publics generally
believe the United States and its allies are doing only a fair or
poor job in addressing the needs of the Iraqi people in the
postwar reconstruction.
There also is widespread disappointment among Muslims that
Iraq did not put up more of a fight against the U.S. and its
allies. Overwhelming majorities in Morocco (93%), Jordan (91%),
Lebanon (82%), Turkey (82%), Indonesia (82%), and the Palestinian
Authority (81%) say they are disappointed the Iraqi military put
up so little resistance. Many others around the world share that
view, including people in South Korea (58%), Brazil (50%) and
Russia (45%).
Still, even in countries that staunchly opposed the war many
people believe that Iraqis will be better off now that Saddam
Hussein has been removed from power. Solid majorities in Western
Europe believe the Iraqi people will be better off, as do
eight-in-ten Kuwaitis and half of the Lebanese. But substantial
majorities elsewhere, notably in Jordan and the Palestinian
Authority, say Iraqis will be worse off now that Hussein has been
deposed.
The postwar update shows limited optimism for a surge of
democratic reform in the Middle East. Substantial minorities of
Muslims in many countries say the region will become somewhat
more democratic, but only in Kuwait do as many as half predict
the Middle East will become much more democratic. Expectations of
major political changes in the Middle East are modest in
countries that participated in the war. Just 16% in Great
Britain, 14% in the U.S. and 10% in Australia think that the
Middle East will become much more democratic.
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