Budget deficits hit
historic levels
SFGate/AP
ALAN FRAM
May 29, 2003
WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal deficits are soaring to
unprecedented heights, yet they are drawing scant public
attention and showing little sign of becoming an issue in next
year's presidential and congressional elections.
That is in contrast with 1992, when colossal budget gaps mixed
with a recession and helped fuel the presidential bids of
Democratic primary candidate Paul Tsongas, independent Ross Perot
and the victor, Bill Clinton.
Though this year's annual shortfall could exceed $400 billion,
shattering the previous record, the public is more worried about
widespread job losses and the threat of terrorism.
The red ink's tangible impact on voters has been cushioned by
low interest rates and a U.S. economy vastly larger than it was
in 1992. And an anti-Washington feeling, which 11 years ago was
rampant and symbolized by the deficit, has faded.
Furthermore, while analysts agree the budget's long-term
prospects must be addressed, many say today's shortfall is
keeping the economy from getting even worse by pumping hundreds
of billions of federal dollars into it. That complicates the
always complex task of crafting a clear, effective political
message about the deficit.
"Deficits become politically important as an issue when voters
feel there are consequences to be paid," said Democratic
consultant Geoffrey Garin. "We probably haven't reached that
point."
Following four years of surpluses under Clinton, President
Bush blames the abrupt return of red ink on recession, the fight
against terrorism and congressional spending. Democrats jockeying
to replace Bush and those in Congress blame GOP tax cuts.
Yet neither side is doing or even proposing much to remedy the
situation.
Bush signed his latest tax cut on Wednesday -- a bill costing
$350 billion through 2013 that Republicans say will rally the
economy and generate more federal revenue. Democratic
presidential hopefuls have rolled out competing health care plans
financed by canceling parts or all of past Bush tax reductions,
with the biggest by Rep. Dick Gephardt, D-Mo., costing $200
billion a year.
And both parties are pushing for a major Medicare expansion
and big increases for defense, domestic security, AIDS efforts
abroad and education.
"I don't see anybody who wants to fight deficits for the sake
of fighting deficits, who has a passion for fiscal
responsibility," said Robert Bixby, executive director of the
bipartisan Concord Coalition, which advocates balancing the
budget. "Most politicians want to promise something, and
promising something costs money."
The deficit has some political clout, as exemplified by
moderate GOP senators who forced Bush to settle for half the $726
billion in tax cuts he wanted. Democrats bring up the deficit,
but mainly to underline how, they say, Bush has mismanaged the
economy and budget.
"It's my pet issue," said former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, a
Democratic presidential hopeful, who said in a recent interview
that he relates the deficit to the jobs that have vanished under
Bush.
The president mentions it too, but largely to foist the blame
on the economy, terrorism and Capitol Hill.
"A Congress which overspends is one which is not that
concerned about the deficit, evidently," he said this month in
Little Rock, Ark.
There is little evidence of public concern, either.
Most recent polls asking people to select their chief concerns
from a menu of issues haven't even listed the deficit as a
choice. In one that did, conducted in April by the nonpartisan
Pew Research Center, the deficit ranked 10th, chosen by 2 percent
of the respondents.
"You can only sell people things they half believe anyway,"
said Grover Norquist, a conservative activist. His message for
Democrats: "It's a lousy strategy, and they're welcome to
it."
The government may spend $400 billion more this year than it
takes in, dwarfing the previous record, the $290 billion deficit
of 1990. Republicans say this year's red ink is less serious
because it is far smaller relative to the U.S. economy than
several shortfalls of the 1980s and early 1990s were.
To accommodate the imbalances, Bush signed a bill Tuesday
adding nearly $1 trillion to the federal borrowing limit -- a
record boost exceeding the total debt the government had
accumulated in its history through 1980. Yet the resulting $7.38
trillion debt cap will probably suffice only until sometime next
year.
Still, fiscal analysts are more concerned about long-term
problems.
The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office calculated in
March that under Bush's budget plans, deficits would get no lower
than $102 billion over the next decade. And that excluded the $80
billion war spending bill passed in April, the new tax cut and
any future tax reductions or spending increases.
Yet now is when analysts say the government should be
buttressing Social Security and Medicare for the baby boom
generation, whose 75 million members begin retiring later this
decade.
"It's kind of a ticking time bomb the political leaders are
inclined to ignore," said David Greenlaw, senior economist for
Morgan Stanley & Co.
EDITOR'S NOTE -- Alan Fram has reported on Congress and the
federal budget for The Associated Press since 1987.
©2003 Associated Press
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