Bush Budget: Dead on
Arrival
CBS Market Watch
Bush budget targets domestic outlays
White House: Federal deficit to shrink to $207B by 2010
By William L. Watts, MarketWatch
Last Update: 6:57 PM ET Feb. 7, 2005
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- President Bush sent lawmakers a
$2.57 trillion, fiscal 2006 spending plan Monday that boosts
defense spending and extends tax cuts while aiming to rein in
deficits by clamping down on domestic spending programs.
The blue-and-tan budget tome outlines Bush's effort to cut or
eliminate some 150 federal spending programs, while holding
overall discretionary spending -- outlays set by Congress each
year -- to an increase of 2.1 percent, lower than the rate of
inflation.
"It is a budget that sets priorities. Our priorities are
winning the war on terror, protecting our homeland, growing our
economy. It's a budget that focuses on results," Bush told
reporters after a Cabinet meeting.
Defense spending would rise by 4.8 percent. Non-security
discretionary spending would fall by 0.5 percent in fiscal 2006
-- the first outright cut since the Reagan administration.
Bush also proposed mandatory spending cuts that would total
$137 billion over 10 years. Much of the reduction would be
achieved by cuts in Medicaid and health care-related payments by
the Veterans Affairs Department.
The White House said the budget plan leaves the administration
on track to meet Bush's campaign pledge cut the deficit "in half"
by 2009.
Democrats charged that the budget plan achieves the
administration's deficit-reduction goals by targeting programs
for the needy while omitting the costs of key items, including
ongoing military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, as well as
forecasts of costs associated with the president's call to create
private Social Security accounts.
"The president's budget is a hoax on the American people.
The two issues that dominated the president's State of the
Union Address -- Iraq and Social Security -- are nowhere to be
found in this budget," said House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi,
D-Calif.
The budget plan also left out any recommendation on tackling
the alternative minimum tax, or AMT. The tax, originally designed
to hit wealthy taxpayers, threatens a growing number of middle
income taxpayers each year.
The Concord Coalition, a bipartisan budget watchdog group,
warned that military spending supplementals and AMT relief could
add $500 billion in deficits over five years, and $100 billion in
2009 alone.
Economists at Goldman Sachs said the White House's budget
forecasts offered less than meets the eye. For the deficit to be
sliced in half by 2010, Congress would have to agree to a
five-year, virtual freeze on non-defense discretionary spending.
Also, the AMT would have to be left alone and supplemental
defense and homeland security spending would have to be a thing
of the past by then, said economists Ed McKelvey, Alec Phillips
and Chuck Berwick, in a research note.
"All three are highly questionable in our view," they
wrote.
White House Office of Management and Budget Director Joshua
Bolten said the AMT question was left to the president's tax
reform panel, which is scheduled to report to Bush by the end of
July.
The budget plan calls for making the president's 2001 and 2003
tax cuts permanent. That's forecast to cut revenues by $1.1
trillion through 2015. All of Bush's tax cuts are scheduled
expire by 2011.
As the White House had previously indicated, the budget
outline forecasts the current fiscal year will see a $427 billion
deficit. Fiscal 2005 thus would be the third consecutive year of
record deficits.
At 3.5 percent of the nation's gross domestic product,
however, the gap is well below the peak of about 6 percent seen
in the early 1980s.
Lower deficits estimated
The Bush budget's accompanying forecast projects persistent
but shrinking deficits over the course of its five-year window.
Specifically, the administration expects the fiscal 2006 deficit
to total about $390 billion, dropping to $233 billion in 2009 and
$207 billion in 2010.
The White House said the forecast shows that the
administration remains on track to halve the deficit from its
fiscal 2004 level. The administration, however, is using a fiscal
2004 estimate of $521 billion provided early last year by the
White House's Office of Management and Budget as a starting
point, rather than the actual 2004 deficit of $412 billion.
The Bush budget plan aims to cut the budget of 12
Cabinet-level departments, including a nearly 10 percent
reduction for the Agriculture Department and a 5.6 percent cut
for the Environmental Protection Agency.
Attempts to slash or reduce programs are notoriously
difficult, however, even when the same party controls Congress
and the White House. Key Republican lawmakers have already
signaled they're ready to fight administration efforts to cap
subsidy payments to farmers at $250,000.
And many of the administration's other proposed cuts were
rejected by lawmakers last year.
Bolten said the administration doesn't expect to get
everything it wants program by program, but is optimistic
Congress will work to hold overall spending to the levels sought
in the budget documents.
"Every individual member will be disappointed about something
in this budget, I am sure. Overall, I think they understand in
the aggregate the need to restrain the federal government
spending appetite, and I'm hopeful we're going to get some good
support," Bolten said.
Senate Budget Committee Chairman Judd Gregg, R-N.H., called
the outline a "restrained" budget that would rein in deficits
caused by a recession, the war in Iraq and an ongoing battle with
terrorism. He pointed to slashes in weapons programs as evidence
that "everyone's ox gets gored" by the proposed cuts.
Democrats countered that the budget sought to pay for Bush's
first-term tax cuts by slashing programs that benefit the needy
and have had little role in rising deficits.
"In the end, those cuts barely make a dent in the deficit, but
they're real and they hurt," said Rep. John Spratt of South
Carolina, the senior Democrat on the House Budget Committee.
Bush has come under fire from Democrats and some fellow
Republicans as the budget swung from surplus to mounting deficits
during his first term. Democrats have blamed Bush's tax cuts,
while conservative critics have charged Bush with failing to rein
in a spendthrift Congress.
Bush has argued that while current deficit levels are too
high, they were inevitable given the early 2001 recession, the
bursting of the tech bubble, and the Sept. 11, 2001, terror
attacks.
On the defense front, Bush asked Congress for $419.3 billion
for the Pentagon for fiscal 2006, a 4.8 percent increase over the
current year's spending. Bush sought a 7 percent increase in
defense spending in fiscal 2005.
Congress already has appropriated $25 billion for military
operations in Iraq and Afghanistan this year, and the White House
is planning to request another $80 billion soon, approximately
$30 billion of which is expected to be spent in the current
fiscal year.
Those expected outlays are reflected in the 2005 and 2006
figures, but the White House made no effort to forecast future
spending on those operations.
There will be additional war costs, Bolten said. "But it
wouldn't be responsible for us to take a guess at what those
costs are."
Where the money is
Bush drew the ire of some fiscally conservative Republicans in
2003 when he pushed through a Medicare drug benefit that's
expected to add around $400 billion in new, mandatory spending
over its first decade, according to Congressional Budget Office
projections. The administration has estimated the cost at more
than $500 billion.
Bush's budget plan says the White House will seek reforms that
will save $137 billion in mandatory spending over the next 10
years.
Bush, in his budget message, said that unfunded mandatory
spending commitments were the top, long-term budget challenge and
that he would work with Congress "to develop a Social Security
reform plan that strengthens Social Security for future
generations" while protecting benefits for current and
near-retirees.
The Social Security proposal tops Bush's domestic agenda. The
White House has said the Social Security accounts, which would be
phased in over three years beginning in 2009, would result in
$754 billion in added debt by 2015. Democrats say the total
transition costs would total more than $3 trillion over the first
two decades.
Bolten said the transition costs would boost the deficit in
2009 and 2010 above levels in Monday's White House forecast. As a
percentage of GDP, however, the deficit each year would be 1.7
percent, which would remain below the 40-year average, he
said.
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