Analysis: U.S. Preparing for Iraq
Exit
Yahoo News/AP
By ROBERT BURNS, AP Military Writer
December 25, 2005
WASHINGTON - At every stop on his three-day tour of Iraq, Defense Secretary
Donald H. Rumsfeld sent a similar message: The U.S. military is not rushing to
get out, but it is getting out, nevertheless.
In his public appearances with U.S. soldiers and commanders, as well as with
Iraqi officials, Rumsfeld emphasized the positive — an elected Iraqi
government is being formed under a new constitution, and Iraq's own soldiers
and police are shouldering more of the security duties.
In other words, the U.S. military is getting out.
That doesn't mean Rumsfeld believes the Iraqis are yet capable of making it
on their own. There is still the potential for civil war, and a resilient and
deadly insurgency is still alive. But it explains Rumsfeld's frequent assertion
that success in Iraq will be decided by the Iraqis.
It also explains why Rumsfeld and his commanders are now scaling back the
U.S. presence in Iraq by canceling the deployment of two Army brigades that had
been scheduled to deploy in coming weeks. Fewer U.S. combat troops are needed
because the Iraqis will be doing more of the fighting.
"We'll keep passing off responsibility to them," as Rumsfeld put it more
than once while in Iraq.
He returned to Washington early Sunday after visiting the Iraqi cities of
Baghdad, Balad, Fallujah and Mosul.
U.S. domestic political pressures surely are among the reasons the White
House wants 2006 to be a pivotal year in which the U.S. military presence in
Iraq gets much smaller, looking ahead to midterm congressional elections in
November in which Bush's Iraq policy is likely to be a key issue.
Rumsfeld and others worry that the longer U.S. troops remain there in large
numbers, the harder it may become to get out.
"U.S. and coalition military leadership is trying to seek the proper balance
between having a military footprint large enough to help the Iraqis win their
fight against terrorists," Rumsfeld said in Fallujah on Friday. "But not a
footprint so large or so intrusive as to antagonize a proud and patriotic
people, or to discourage the Iraqi people from taking initiative to run their
own country for themselves."
In other words, the U.S. military is getting out.
Before flying home on Christmas Eve, Rumsfeld was briefed on what the
military calls a "tips line" that is heavily advertised to encourage citizens
in the Mosul area to call Iraqi security forces with tips on insurgents.
"You can remain anonymous but please don't remain silent," says a public
flyer that also mentions that tips which lead to a conviction "may allow you to
be eligible for financial rewards."
Rumsfeld was told the number of tips have roughly doubled in recent months,
one of numerous examples of what he and U.S. commanders say are signs that the
tide may be turning against the insurgency.
On the other hand, some of these "tips" are really no more than attempts by
one ethnic or religious or tribal faction to retaliate or seek revenge against
a rival by anonymously pointing the finger.
It's also true that the Americans clearly are not yet fully convinced that
the worst is over.
Gen. George Casey, the top U.S. commander in Iraq, told reporters on Friday
that instead of sending home an Army brigade that he does not now need in Iraq,
he is keeping it nearby in Kuwait as a "hedge against the uncertainty of the
next few months" when Iraqis will be forming a new government.
Casey said he hopes to be able to recommend further troop reductions next
spring, assuming the Iraqis put their new government in place in a reasonably
short period of time — perhaps a few months. If things turn sour, Casey
said, he is willing to reverse direction and ask President Bush to approve an
increase in U.S. troop levels until the political process gets back on
track.
Among the small signs from Rumsfeld's visit that point to his increased
confidence in security in Iraq: he spent two nights in the country. On previous
trips since the insurgency took hold in midsummer 2003 he never spent the
night. In a move that some might consider even bolder, Rumsfeld took a ride on
the main road leading out of the city to Baghdad International Airport. Until
recent months it was notorious as the most dangerous stretch of pavement in the
country, with roadside bombings taking a heavy toll.
After dining Friday night with a group of Iraqi politicians, Rumsfeld told
Casey, who was returning with him to Camp Victory near the airport, that he
wanted to take the airport road. More commonly — and more safely, many
would argue — they would have flown the short distance by helicopter.
The road is not the safest, but it got safer when Iraqi forces took a bigger
role in securing it.
In other words, the U.S. military is getting out.
EDs: Robert Burns has covered military and national security affairs for the
AP since 1990.
When Iraqis spoke, no one listened - except Murtha Nov 22,
2005: Iraqi leaders call on U.S. to set withdrawal schedule
CAIRO, Egypt (AP) -- Reaching out to the Sunni Arab community, Iraqi leaders
called for a timetable for the withdrawal of U.S.-led forces and said Iraq's
opposition had a "legitimate right" of resistance.
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