HONOLULU -- The giant radar, so powerful it can tell which way a baseball is spinning 3,000 miles away and so cutting edge it has been billed as the nation's best chance at comprehensive missile defense, came to the historic port of Pearl Harbor for what was advertised as a quick stopover for minor repairs and a paint job.

That was eight months ago.

Now, even as the weeks pass and the price tag creeps toward $1 billion, the Sea-Based X-Band Radar shows little chance of actually making the voyage to its intended port in Alaska--considered the optimal location for monitoring potential North Korean missile launches--until at least later this fall.

Even more, a recent independent assessment obtained by the Tribune lists dozens of concerns from naval and defense experts about the design and administration of the radar vessel, a cornerstone in the Bush administration's oft-criticized push to fast-track the development of a yet-unproven ballistic missile defense system.

Among the findings:

- The sensitive radar -- known as the SBX--is mounted atop a vessel that might need to be towed to safety in the event of rugged Alaskan seas, but its one towing bridle likely would be underwater and impossible for a rescue ship to use anytime waves reached more than 8 feet.

- Although the SBX may be hundreds of miles away from support ships, it lacks a quickly deployable rescue boat in the event of a man overboard, does not have a helicopter landing pad certified for landing the most common U.S. Coast Guard and Navy rescue helicopters, and its crews have not been trained "for heavy weather or cold-weather operations."

- And, ironically, the X-Band, considered one of the nation's foremost technologies in defending against foreign missiles, has minimal security itself. Many critics speculate that it is vulnerable to attack by enemy nations or terrorist groups.

The Missile Defense Agency, the arm of the Department of Defense that is responsible for the radar, has said it has addressed or is addressing the majority of concerns raised in the independent assessment. But the problems that have plagued the SBX since it was unveiled as part of the administration's nearly $43 billion missile defense system have led critics to dub it "Son of Star Wars," a derisive moniker drawing on President Ronald Reagan's unrealized dream of developing a space shield that could stop incoming enemy missiles.

The Bush administration has faced significant skepticism about its missile defense goals. The president in 2002 ordered that a missile defense system be operational within two years, though the technology was considered shaky after tests showed the system often failed.

Those who had questioned whether it was wise to put a radar as intricate as the X-Band on a vessel bound for some of the world's roughest waters only had their arguments bolstered this year when the massive SBX sustained damage during its first long ocean voyage from the Gulf of Mexico to Hawaii.

"That radar is absolutely packed with sensitive electronics, and . . . salt water, wind and waves don't go well with sensitive electronics," said Philip Coyle, who as assistant secretary of defense from 1994 to 2001 was the Clinton administration's chief weapons evaluator.

He went on: "The bottom line is that the designers of this system didn't begin to contemplate the realistic conditions under which the X-Band would have to operate. When you look at all the facts, you really have to wonder what the people who designed this thing were thinking."

The SBX's radar sphere--a 27-story white globe that looks like a giant golf ball--is mounted atop a sea-based, partly submersible oil rig. Its powerful high-frequency radar, which makes detailed, long-range imagery possible, is intended to detect the launch of missiles from hostile nations and then guide U.S. missiles to intercept the threat.

Fears about violent weather

The SBX is to be based in the Aleutian Islands in Alaska, an ideal place from which to monitor the trajectory experts believe a North Korean missile would take en route to the U.S. This summer, North Korea did a test launch of its most advanced missiles and is feared to have missiles that could reach U.S. bases in Japan, the American territory of Guam and potentially Hawaii or Alaska.

But the Aleutians lie in an unforgiving portion of the Bering Sea where winter weather can be so violent that the islands have been nicknamed "the birthplace of winds." Therein lie many of the concerns associated with the SBX.

Although virtually all experts agree the SBX is a rugged vessel, many worry that some of its designs fail to fully take into account conditions routinely present around Adak Island, Alaska, the radar's destined home.

They raise a number of concerns: There is no refueling station for rescue or resupply aircraft, despite the fact the SBX routinely could be up to an 8-hour helicopter flight from a Coast Guard station; the emergency communication system depends on satellite communications that can occasionally fail; vital backup electrical systems on deck are not protected from water or cold; the propulsion system will not allow the vessel to move quickly.

An official said recently that the Missile Defense Agency was "taking to heart" the dozens of recommendations made in the independent assessment.

Chet DeCesaris, deputy program manager for the agency's ground-based missile defense program, said the vessel is getting certified for Coast Guard and Navy rescue helicopters to land on it, its crew has been extensively training in cold-weather operations and damage incurred during the voyage to Hawaii has been repaired.

"The overriding thought in the assessment was that the SBX is a robust vessel," he said, adding that the converted oil rig the radar is mounted on was designed for service in the harsh conditions of the North Sea.

He said the agency was studying whether to implement other major changes, such as adding a second bridle to increase odds that the SBX could be towed away from a violent storm. But he argued that a permanent mooring platform would be built for the SBX within about a year and there was a "low risk" that a storm would significantly damage the vessel before that.

"I don't think, I know, there is no risk going up there for the winter," DeCesaris said, adding that should a significant enough storm arise that it threatens the radar, the SBX would be "taken anywhere in the world" to ensure its safety.

Despite the setbacks, DeCesaris insisted the SBX would be in Alaska sometime in November. Previously the Missile Defense Agency had assured Congress that it would be in place by late summer, and some experts have said a move in late fall will be difficult because of the early arrival of winter in Alaska.

There are doubts that the SBX will ever make it to Alaska.

"I increasingly suspect it may not ever leave Hawaii," said Coyle, the former assistant secretary of defense.

Even if all the SBX's design challenges are addressed, there remains an overarching question: Can the radar actually detect a hostile missile in real time, under real-life circumstances? A number of defense experts have voiced skepticism, saying the preliminary testing done on missile defense radar systems is inherently flawed because the tests are so carefully scripted that radar operators often know beforehand what kind of missile to look for, where it will be flying and what kind of radar signature it gives off.

A scathing report by the Government Accountability Office this spring took the Missile Defense Agency to task for not yet proving its system works, even though the Pentagon plans to spend an additional $58 billion, or 14 percent of its projected research budget, on missile defense in the coming six years.

Security issue

What most worries many observers is what happens the day the SBX is declared operational. The vessel now is protected by a security detail with a handful of small-arms weapons. DeCesaris deflected questions about the vessel's security by saying that the Missile Defense Agency leaves security issues to the armed forces; in reality, though, the vessel belongs to the agency and is not under the jurisdiction of any military branch.

"If North Korea or China actually believed this thing worked, one of the first things they would take out would be the X-Band if aggressions developed," Coyle said. "Those .50-cal [machine guns] they have on board aren't going to be able to do anything to protect them."

kscharnberg@tribune.com

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