Category 5 Hurricane Heads for House GOP

Let's get the disclaimer out of the way: there are 25 days between now and the November 7 election and things could well change, making what follows obsolete.

That said, this is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974.  I think a 30-seat gain today for Democrats is more likely to occur than a 15-seat gain, the minimum that would tip the majority. The chances of that number going higher are also strong, unless something occurs that fundamentally changes the dynamic of this election.  This is what Republican strategists' nightmares look like.

Whether one looks at national or district-level polling data, or a survey like the new Democracy Corps survey that covered the 49 most vulnerable GOP districts, the conclusion remains the same: it is very ugly for Republicans.

On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races.  He believes the party should help fund previously ignored Democratic challengers in second- and third-tier districts--the next 30 to 50 Republican-held seats--to fully capitalize on this environment and help those candidates maximize their chances of winning. Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts.

For Republicans, it is a time to defend every seat, no matter how secure those seats appear.  If things don't change, GOP incumbents, who never even contemplated having a difficult race, may well lose this year.  And if I were a Republican, I'd start praying that something happens to take the spotlight away from Iraq and scandals, because this current issue mix is lethal.

In the Senate, there were already seven GOP seats that were virtually tied, and in three or four of those cases, politically dead.  Thus, we have not seen as much movement as we've seen in the House. Readers should remember the Cook Political Report's long respected policy of not putting unindicted incumbents in a worse category than Toss Up. For more on the state of play in the Senate races, see Editor Jennifer Duffy's Senate Overview in today's update.

Can things change? Sure. The North Korean nuclear (or non-nuclear, as the case may be) tests should serve as a reminder that this election, like any other, can turn on a dime.  But for Republicans, it must turn if they have any hope of salvaging this election.

Charlie Cook's National Overview
May 6, 2006

The 2006 midterm elections are a political analyst's nightmare. The national climate seems to portend big changes, yet race-by-race analyses reveal formidable odds against a Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate.

Voters' unhappiness over the direction of the country, Congress's abysmal approval ratings, President Bush's exceedingly low job-approval scores, and Democrats' advantage on the generic congressional ballot test all suggest that Democrats should be able to seize the House and possibly the Senate. These are the sort of climate indicators that foretold the Republican tsunami of 1994.

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