If 18-to-24-year-olds actually do what they say they'll do on Tuesday, they could sway the results in close races and set a record turnout for young voters in a midterm election, a new national poll suggests.

The survey of 2,546 young people, all U.S. citizens, found that 32% "definitely" plan to vote next week. The previous record turnout for a midterm election was set in 1982 when 26.6% of 18-to-24-year-olds voted.

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"What we're seeing leading up to this election is continued engagement on the part of those young people," says Jeanne Shaheen, director of Harvard University's Institute of Politics, whose findings were released Wednesday. "Since Sept. 11 and the 2004 elections, more of these young people say politics is relevant to their lives and there's an increased likelihood we think they will in fact turn out."

The institute has surveyed college students for six years, but this year doubled the number; half of those questioned in the same age group were not university students. The institute says this provides a more comprehensive look at the group some view as critical to election outcomes now and in 2008.

"Thirty-two percent would be quite remarkable," says William Galston, a senior fellow in governance studies at the Washington-based Brookings Institution, a think tank. "If young people hit anything like that figure, then extra millions would show up, and given the number of close races, that could easily make a big difference."

Almost three-quarters surveyed (72%) are registered to vote; 60% say they follow national politics closely and 35% consider themselves to be politically engaged. Their political party identification includes 35% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 39% Independent. Of those surveyed, 73% were white, 11% Hispanic and 11% black.

Thirty percent watch TV network news regularly, 14% read online major newspapers regularly, 14% read online columns or blogs and 7% read print newspapers regularly.

Among other findings:

60% believe the country is on the "wrong track;" 18% say it's headed in the "right direction."

President Bush gets an average grade of "C-" on seven key issues — the campaign against terrorism, education, the environment, jobs and the economy, health care, illegal immigration and the war in Iraq.

41% favor a Congress controlled by Democrats following the mid-term election, vs. 25% Republicans; 34% had no preference.

Such attitudes are similar to those of the general population in recent polls. An Associated Press-AOL poll conducted Oct. 20-25 found that 66% of 2,000 adults believe the country is on the wrong track, which is slightly higher than the Harvard study. A Wall Street Journal/NBC poll of 1,010 registered voters conducted Oct. 28-30 found 52% preferred a Congress controlled by Democrats. The Harvard study also found that the Iraq war is the most important issue for the generation. A Fox News poll of 900 likely voters conducted Oct. 24-26 also found Iraq the most important issue in this year's elections.

The Harvard survey was conducted online Oct. 4-16 by Harris Interactive. A stratified random sample of Harris Interactive's online panel was invited to participate through a password protected e-mail invitation. Margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.

This attention to the potential impact of the youth vote is nothing new — going back to 1972 when 18-year-olds could for the first time vote in a presidential election. That year, turnout among young voters set an all-time record, with 52.1%.

That's why the Harvard data about young voters leaves Stephen Hess, a professor of media and public affairs at George Washington University, less impressed. Because he says "everything is critical" in close elections, "anybody who decides to come out or stay home in greater numbers is going to affect the election." Hess says there are plenty of groups with a stake in the outcome, so he is cautious about making broad declarations regarding young voters.

"I was national chairman of the White House Conference on Youth in 1971 and, at that time and ever since, we have been talking about that more youth are going to be energized about whatever the situation is," he says. "I'm not either discouraged by the 32% number nor will I be surprised."

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