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U.S. Adults Remain Very Pessimistic About Situation in Iraq
PR Newswire Association
May 26, 2006
             President Bush's approval rating ties lowest point

    ROCHESTER, N.Y., May 26 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. adults remain very
pessimistic about the situation in Iraq, and are not confident that U.S.
policies there will be successful. As a result, President Bush's job
approval rating in handling the situation in Iraq hasn't changed in two
months -- two-thirds (68%) give the president negative marks -- tying an
all-time low.
    These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,085 U.S. adults
surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between May 9 and 16, 2006.
    Specifically, this poll finds:

    * President Bush's rating on his handling of events in Iraq is currently
      68 percent negative, 29 percent positive. This is virtually identical to
      March's ratings when, by 68 to 30 percent, U.S. adults gave the
      President negative marks. This remains the lowest measure for the
      president.
    * In this new poll, 43 percent of U.S. adults think that the situation for
      U.S. troops is getting worse, down three percentage points from the 46
      percent who felt this way in March. Only 20 percent now think things are
      getting better, a slight improvement from 17 percent in March.
    * Six in 10 (61%) U.S. adults are not confident "that U.S. policies in
      Iraq will be successful." This has remained the same from March. Only 22
      percent are confident about U.S. policies in Iraq; a slight improvement
      from March's 20 percent.
    * By 47 to 38 percent, a plurality of U.S. adults believes that "taking
      military action against Iraq" was the wrong thing to do. In March, a
      nearly identical 48 to 37 percent plurality also felt this way.
    Concerning the possibility that there will be civil war in Iraq in the
next six months, just under three in 10 (29%) U.S. adults say that such a
war is extremely or very likely, with another 19 percent saying that it is
likely. Four in 10 adults (40%) think that it is somewhat likely or not at
all likely. These feelings have not wavered from those in March, when 30
percent felt a civil war in Iraq was likely as compared to 38 who felt that
civil war wasn't as likely.
                                   TABLE 1
                 RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH - HANDLING OF IRAQ
 "Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has done in handling the
                 issue of Iraq over the last several months?"
    Base: All Adults


                                                2003
                           March    April    May    July    Sept    Nov
                             %        %       %       %       %      %
    Positive (NET)          56       67      63      49      47     41
      Excellent             29       38      34      21      16     15
      Pretty good           27       29      28      29      31     26
    Negative (NET)          43       32      36      50      51     58
      Only fair             16       15      18      22      19     19
      Poor                  27       17      18      28      32     38
    Not sure                 1        1       1       1       2      1


                                                2004
                          Jan   March   April   May   June   July   Sept   Dec
                           %      %       %      %      %      %      %     %
    Positive (NET)        51     49      43     42     41     39     41    42
      Excellent           20     18      15     13     13     15     14    12
      Pretty good         31     31      29     29     27     24     27    30
    Negative (NET)        46     49      55     56     58     58     58    57
      Only fair           20     19      18     18     19     17     17    19
      Poor                26     30      37     39     39     40     41    37
    Not sure               2      2       2      2      1      3      2     2



                                       2005                         2006
                      Jan  March  May  July  Sept  Oct  Dec    Jan  March  May
                       %     %     %     %     %    %    %      %     %     %
    Positive (NET)    39    42    37    34    34   32   29     36    30    29
      Excellent       13    18    13    11    10   11    9     12     8     9
      Pretty good     26    24    24    23    24   21   20     25    21    20
    Negative (NET)    59    56    61    64    65   66   68     61    68    68
      Only fair       17    20    19    20    18   16   17     20    20    21
      Poor            42    36    42    44    46   50   52     41    48    47
    Not sure           2     2     2     2     2    2    2      3     3     3

    Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.


                                   TABLE 2
           CONFIDENCE THAT U.S. POLICIES ON IRAQ WILL BE SUCCESSFUL
    "How confident are you that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful?"
    Base: All Adults


                 2003                            2004
              Sept  Nov     Jan  Feb  March  April  May  June  July  Sept  Dec
                %    %       %    %     %      %     %     %     %    %     %
    Confident  27   25      31   31    31     26    25    25    26   29    29
    Not
     confident 46   51      45   48    46     52    55    53    51   54    51
    Not sure   27   24      24   22    22     22    20    22    23   18    20

                                       2005                         2006
                      Jan  March  May  July  Sept  Oct  Dec    Jan  March  May
                       %     %     %     %     %    %    %      %     %     %
    Confident         25    30    26    23    23   24   22     26    20    22
    Not
     confident        56    49    54    59    59   61   62     55    61    61
    Not sure          19    21    20    19    18   15   16     20    20    18

    Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.


                                   TABLE 3
                 MILITARY ACTION - RIGHT OR WRONG THING TO DO
    "Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking
      military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?"
    Base: All Adults


                  2003                            2004
               Sept  Nov    Jan  Feb  March  April  May  June  July  Sept  Dec
                 %    %      %    %     %      %     %     %     %    %     %
    Right thing 55   49     55   52    51     49    47    44    43   43    43
    Wrong thing 32   37     31   34    33     37    38    42    42   43    43
    Not sure    13   13     15   14    16     14    14    14    15   13    14



                                      2005                          2006
                     Jan  March  May  July  Sept  Oct  Dec     Jan  March  May
                      %     %     %     %     %    %    %       %     %     %
    Right thing      39    41    39    38    37   34   35      40    37    38
    Wrong thing      46    45    48    49    49   53   53      46    48    47
    Not sure         15    15    13    14    14   13   12      13    15    15

    Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.


                                   TABLE 4
             SITUATION FOR U.S. TROOPS - GETTING BETTER OR WORSE
      "Do you think that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is ... ?"
    Base: All Adults


                                                  2004
                           Jan  Feb  March  April  May  June  July  Sept   Dec
                            %    %     %      %     %     %     %     %     %
    Getting better         24   22    24      9    11    19    18    15    18
    Getting worse          36   38    38     64    65    49    45    54    50
    No real change         31   31    30     20    19    26    30    26    25
    Not sure                8    9     8      6     5     6     7     6     6


                                     2005                           2006
                     Jan  March  May  July  Sept  Oct  Dec     Jan  March  May
                      %     %     %     %     %    %    %       %     %     %
    Getting better   13    21    21    17    19   19   20      22    17    20
    Getting worse    53    41    39    44    43   44   43      36    46    43
    No real change   28    33    34    35    33   33   32      35    32    31
    Not sure          6     6     6     4     5    4    5       7     6     5

    Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.


                                   TABLE 5
                 LIKELIHOOD OF IRAQI CIVIL WAR IN SIX MONTHS
  "Given the recent events in Iraq, how likely do you think Iraq will have a
                      civil war in the next six months?
    Base: All Adults


                                                          March           May
                                                            %              %
    Extremely/Very Likely (Net)                            30             29
      Extremely Likely                                     16             13
      Very Likely                                          15             15
    Likely                                                 21             19
    Somewhat/Not At All Likely (Net)                       38             40
      Somewhat Likely                                      31             29
      Not At All Likely                                     7             10
    Not sure                                               11             13
    Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding.
    Methodology
    The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States
between May 9 and 16, 2006 among 2,085 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures
for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted
where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in
the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for
respondents' propensity to be online.
    All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include:
sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed);
measurement error due to question wording and/or question order,
deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse
(including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used)
and weighting.
    With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that
result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a
finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should
be avoided.
    With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is
possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not
other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure
probability sample of 2,085 adults one could say with a 95 percent
probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 2
percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into
account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and
therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated.
    These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the
National Council on Public Polls.
    J27799
    Q501, 505, 510, 515, 520

    The Harris Poll(R) #43, May 26, 2006
    By David Krane, Vice President, Public Affairs and Government Research,
Harris Interactive(R)
    About Harris Interactive(R)
    Harris Interactive, the 13th largest and fastest-growing market
research firm in the world, provides clients with research-driven insights
and strategic advice to help them make more confident decisions, leading to
measurable and enduring improvements in performance.
    Widely known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering online market
research methods, Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its
United States (http://www.harrisinteractive.com), Europe
(http://www.harrisinteractive.com/europe), and Asia offices and is supported by
its a wholly-owned subsidiary Novatris (http://www.novatris.com) in Paris and an
independent global network of affiliate market research companies. Harris
Interactive is headquartered in Rochester, New York, and Europe operations
are based in London.
    To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to
participate in online surveys, go to http://www.harrispollonline.com. EOE M/F/D/V
    Press Contact:
    Jennifer Cummings
    Harris Interactive
    585-214-7720


SOURCE Harris Interactive
Original Text

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