U.S. Adults Remain Very Pessimistic About
Situation in Iraq
PR Newswire Association May 26, 2006 President Bush's approval rating ties lowest point ROCHESTER, N.Y., May 26 /PRNewswire/ -- U.S. adults remain very pessimistic about the situation in Iraq, and are not confident that U.S. policies there will be successful. As a result, President Bush's job approval rating in handling the situation in Iraq hasn't changed in two months -- two-thirds (68%) give the president negative marks -- tying an all-time low. These are the results of a nationwide Harris Poll of 2,085 U.S. adults surveyed online by Harris Interactive(R) between May 9 and 16, 2006. Specifically, this poll finds: * President Bush's rating on his handling of events in Iraq is currently 68 percent negative, 29 percent positive. This is virtually identical to March's ratings when, by 68 to 30 percent, U.S. adults gave the President negative marks. This remains the lowest measure for the president. * In this new poll, 43 percent of U.S. adults think that the situation for U.S. troops is getting worse, down three percentage points from the 46 percent who felt this way in March. Only 20 percent now think things are getting better, a slight improvement from 17 percent in March. * Six in 10 (61%) U.S. adults are not confident "that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful." This has remained the same from March. Only 22 percent are confident about U.S. policies in Iraq; a slight improvement from March's 20 percent. * By 47 to 38 percent, a plurality of U.S. adults believes that "taking military action against Iraq" was the wrong thing to do. In March, a nearly identical 48 to 37 percent plurality also felt this way. Concerning the possibility that there will be civil war in Iraq in the next six months, just under three in 10 (29%) U.S. adults say that such a war is extremely or very likely, with another 19 percent saying that it is likely. Four in 10 adults (40%) think that it is somewhat likely or not at all likely. These feelings have not wavered from those in March, when 30 percent felt a civil war in Iraq was likely as compared to 38 who felt that civil war wasn't as likely. TABLE 1 RATING OF PRESIDENT BUSH - HANDLING OF IRAQ "Overall, how would you rate the job President Bush has done in handling the issue of Iraq over the last several months?" Base: All Adults 2003 March April May July Sept Nov % % % % % % Positive (NET) 56 67 63 49 47 41 Excellent 29 38 34 21 16 15 Pretty good 27 29 28 29 31 26 Negative (NET) 43 32 36 50 51 58 Only fair 16 15 18 22 19 19 Poor 27 17 18 28 32 38 Not sure 1 1 1 1 2 1 2004 Jan March April May June July Sept Dec % % % % % % % % Positive (NET) 51 49 43 42 41 39 41 42 Excellent 20 18 15 13 13 15 14 12 Pretty good 31 31 29 29 27 24 27 30 Negative (NET) 46 49 55 56 58 58 58 57 Only fair 20 19 18 18 19 17 17 19 Poor 26 30 37 39 39 40 41 37 Not sure 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 2005 2006 Jan March May July Sept Oct Dec Jan March May % % % % % % % % % % Positive (NET) 39 42 37 34 34 32 29 36 30 29 Excellent 13 18 13 11 10 11 9 12 8 9 Pretty good 26 24 24 23 24 21 20 25 21 20 Negative (NET) 59 56 61 64 65 66 68 61 68 68 Only fair 17 20 19 20 18 16 17 20 20 21 Poor 42 36 42 44 46 50 52 41 48 47 Not sure 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 2 CONFIDENCE THAT U.S. POLICIES ON IRAQ WILL BE SUCCESSFUL "How confident are you that U.S. policies in Iraq will be successful?" Base: All Adults 2003 2004 Sept Nov Jan Feb March April May June July Sept Dec % % % % % % % % % % % Confident 27 25 31 31 31 26 25 25 26 29 29 Not confident 46 51 45 48 46 52 55 53 51 54 51 Not sure 27 24 24 22 22 22 20 22 23 18 20 2005 2006 Jan March May July Sept Oct Dec Jan March May % % % % % % % % % % Confident 25 30 26 23 23 24 22 26 20 22 Not confident 56 49 54 59 59 61 62 55 61 61 Not sure 19 21 20 19 18 15 16 20 20 18 Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 3 MILITARY ACTION - RIGHT OR WRONG THING TO DO "Thinking about everything that has happened, do you think that taking military action against Iraq was the right or wrong thing to do?" Base: All Adults 2003 2004 Sept Nov Jan Feb March April May June July Sept Dec % % % % % % % % % % % Right thing 55 49 55 52 51 49 47 44 43 43 43 Wrong thing 32 37 31 34 33 37 38 42 42 43 43 Not sure 13 13 15 14 16 14 14 14 15 13 14 2005 2006 Jan March May July Sept Oct Dec Jan March May % % % % % % % % % % Right thing 39 41 39 38 37 34 35 40 37 38 Wrong thing 46 45 48 49 49 53 53 46 48 47 Not sure 15 15 13 14 14 13 12 13 15 15 Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 4 SITUATION FOR U.S. TROOPS - GETTING BETTER OR WORSE "Do you think that the situation for U.S. troops in Iraq is ... ?" Base: All Adults 2004 Jan Feb March April May June July Sept Dec % % % % % % % % % Getting better 24 22 24 9 11 19 18 15 18 Getting worse 36 38 38 64 65 49 45 54 50 No real change 31 31 30 20 19 26 30 26 25 Not sure 8 9 8 6 5 6 7 6 6 2005 2006 Jan March May July Sept Oct Dec Jan March May % % % % % % % % % % Getting better 13 21 21 17 19 19 20 22 17 20 Getting worse 53 41 39 44 43 44 43 36 46 43 No real change 28 33 34 35 33 33 32 35 32 31 Not sure 6 6 6 4 5 4 5 7 6 5 Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. TABLE 5 LIKELIHOOD OF IRAQI CIVIL WAR IN SIX MONTHS "Given the recent events in Iraq, how likely do you think Iraq will have a civil war in the next six months? Base: All Adults March May % % Extremely/Very Likely (Net) 30 29 Extremely Likely 16 13 Very Likely 15 15 Likely 21 19 Somewhat/Not At All Likely (Net) 38 40 Somewhat Likely 31 29 Not At All Likely 7 10 Not sure 11 13 Note: Percentages may not add up exactly to 100% due to rounding. Methodology The Harris Poll(R) was conducted online within the United States between May 9 and 16, 2006 among 2,085 adults (aged 18 and over). Figures for age, sex, race, education, region and household income were weighted where necessary to bring them into line with their actual proportions in the population. Propensity score weighting was also used to adjust for respondents' propensity to be online. All surveys are subject to several sources of error. These include: sampling error (because only a sample of a population is interviewed); measurement error due to question wording and/or question order, deliberately or unintentionally inaccurate responses, nonresponse (including refusals), interviewer effects (when live interviewers are used) and weighting. With one exception (sampling error) the magnitude of the errors that result cannot be estimated. There is, therefore, no way to calculate a finite "margin of error" for any survey and the use of these words should be avoided. With pure probability samples, with 100 percent response rates, it is possible to calculate the probability that the sampling error (but not other sources of error) is not greater than some number. With a pure probability sample of 2,085 adults one could say with a 95 percent probability that the overall results have a sampling error of +/- 2 percentage points. However that does not take other sources of error into account. This online survey is not based on a probability sample and therefore no theoretical sampling error can be calculated. These statements conform to the principles of disclosure of the National Council on Public Polls. J27799 Q501, 505, 510, 515, 520 The Harris Poll(R) #43, May 26, 2006 By David Krane, Vice President, Public Affairs and Government Research, Harris Interactive(R) About Harris Interactive(R) Harris Interactive, the 13th largest and fastest-growing market research firm in the world, provides clients with research-driven insights and strategic advice to help them make more confident decisions, leading to measurable and enduring improvements in performance. Widely known for The Harris Poll(R) and for pioneering online market research methods, Harris Interactive serves clients worldwide through its United States (http://www.harrisinteractive.com), Europe (http://www.harrisinteractive.com/europe), and Asia offices and is supported by its a wholly-owned subsidiary Novatris (http://www.novatris.com) in Paris and an independent global network of affiliate market research companies. Harris Interactive is headquartered in Rochester, New York, and Europe operations are based in London. To become a member of the Harris Poll Online(SM) and be invited to participate in online surveys, go to http://www.harrispollonline.com. EOE M/F/D/V Press Contact: Jennifer Cummings Harris Interactive 585-214-7720SOURCE Harris Interactive Commentary: |