Congressional Democrats
Favored
Forbes/AP
By WILL LESTER
January 6, 2006
In an ominous election-year sign for Republicans, Americans are leaning
sharply toward giving Democrats control of Congress, an AP-Ipsos poll finds.
Democrats are favored 49 percent to 36 percent.
The poll was taken this week as Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff pleaded
guilty to tax evasion, fraud and corruption charges and agreed to aid a federal
investigation of members of Congress and other government officials.
President Bush's job approval remains low - 40 percent in the AP-Ipsos poll.
About as many approve of his handling of Iraq, where violence against Iraqis
and U.S. troops has been surging.
"I don't think anyone is hitting the panic button," said Rich Bond, a former
Republican National Committee chairman. "But there is an acute recognition of
the grim environment that both parties are operating in."
"If the Democrats had any leadership or any message, they could be poised
for a good year," Bond said. "But in the absence of that, they have not been
able to capitalize on Republican woes. Because of the size of the GOP majority,
Democrats have to run the board, and I don't see that happening."
The public's unease with Republican leadership in the White House and
Congress creates a favorable environment for Democrats, said Democratic
consultant Dane Strother.
"The problem is you don't vote for a party," Strother said. "You're voting
for a member of Congress. And we're a year away."
About a third of the public, 34 percent, approves of the job Congress is
doing, and nearly twice as many, 63 percent, disapprove, according to the poll
of 1,001 adults taken Jan. 3-5. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus
3 percentage points. Public opinion of both Democrats and Republicans in
Congress has been mixed, recent polling found.
"Neither one of the parties has done a very good job so far," said Cristal
Mills, a political independent from Los Angeles. "They get away with murder,
they get paid to pass certain things. It's the good ol' boy syndrome."
In the Senate, 33 seats will be on the ballot in November, 17 of them
currently in Democratic hands, 15 controlled by Republicans, and one held by
Sen. James Jeffords, a Vermont independent. Democrats now have 44 Senate seats,
and need to pick up seven to gain a majority, six if Vermont independent Bernie
Sanders replaces Jeffords.
All 435 House seats are on the ballot this fall, and Democrats need to pick
up at least 15 to become the majority party and take control of the House.
While many House races are noncompetitive, Republican strategists fear that
fallout from the Abramoff scandal will give Democrats fresh opportunity for
gains. But they dismiss suggestions that Democrats could take control of the
House.
Republicans became the dominant party in the House in the 1994, when the GOP
picked up more than 50 House seats held by Democrats. In that midterm election,
Democrats won four open seats that previously were held by the GOP.
Carl Forti, a spokesman for the GOP's congressional campaign committee, said
about 30 House seats are competitive this year, compared with more than 100 a
dozen years ago. Democrats put the competitive number in 2006 closer to 40 or
50.
Some people say they are leaning toward giving Democrats control of Congress
because they want to see changes.
"I just don't like the direction our country is going in," said Steve Brown,
a political independent from Olympia, Wash. "I think a balance of power would
be beneficial right now."
Associated Press Special Correspondent David Espo contributed to this
story.
|